KSAN / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

61%

51%

28%

24%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.9¢Risks 47.85u

WN2NO 52.2¢Risks 52.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.15u · WN2 −52.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	33.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	42.8%	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	83.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	69.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	55.2%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	0.6%	27.7%	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	90.7%	43.0%	34.9%	—	19.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	79.0%	34.3%	69.0%	—	16.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	69.1%	40.2%	47.7%	—	15.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	65.5%	73.9%	64.8%	—	14.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	66.2%	55.0%	80.5%	—	16.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	62.6%	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	75.2%	32.2%	52.6%	—	11.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	69.0%	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	63.6%	40.9%	60.9%	—	7.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	58.5%	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	66.1%	33.9%	58.7%	—	9.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	65.6%	37.2%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	59.2%	29.4%	54.1%	—	6.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	65.5%	20.5%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	68.9%	32.1%	25.5%	0.0%	3.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	73.3%	29.6%	2.2%	—	3.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	70.0%	31.0%	45.4%	27.0%	3.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	71.7%	28.3%	41.6%	—	3.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	78.3%	35.4%	52.5%	—	3.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	80.0%	39.8%	52.6%	—	2.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	78.0%	44.6%	52.7%	26.2%	2.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	73.5%	54.2%	55.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	73.2%	57.2%	66.9%	24.5%	1.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	72.8%	45.5%	54.5%	—	1.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	73.7%	34.6%	57.9%	27.6%	0.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	81.9%	40.2%	67.6%	—	1.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	91%	81.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.0081
IFS Ensemble	72%	81.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0773
ICON	61%	80.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.1513
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.1681
AIFS Single	51%	79.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.2401
IFS HRES	28%	77.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.5227
WeatherNext 2	24%	77.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.5852

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗