KSAN / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

66%

39%

32%

25%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 56.0¢Risks 55.95u

WN2NO 44.0¢Risks 44.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.05u · WN2 −44.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	36.9%	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	79.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	63.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	48.7%	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	0.4%	22.3%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	87.4%	36.2%	28.6%	—	15.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	30.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	73.4%	27.9%	62.3%	—	12.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	13.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	62.0%	33.0%	40.2%	—	11.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	57.9%	67.0%	57.1%	—	10.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	58.3%	46.7%	74.2%	—	11.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	54.3%	39.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	67.8%	24.8%	43.9%	—	8.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	60.7%	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	54.6%	32.2%	51.8%	—	4.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	49.0%	19.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	56.8%	25.5%	49.0%	—	5.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	56.0%	28.2%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	49.0%	21.2%	43.9%	—	3.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	55.3%	13.8%	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	58.7%	23.0%	17.6%	0.0%	1.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	63.3%	20.6%	1.1%	—	1.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	59.2%	21.5%	34.1%	18.3%	1.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	60.7%	19.1%	30.4%	—	1.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	68.0%	24.6%	40.1%	—	1.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	69.8%	28.0%	39.8%	—	1.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	66.9%	31.9%	39.4%	16.5%	1.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	61.0%	40.3%	41.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	60.1%	42.8%	52.9%	14.6%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	87%	91.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	81.8°F	3.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	81.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	78.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	77.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	77.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261019-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 81°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗