KSAN / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

95%

89%

82%

73%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 84.2¢Risks 84.25u

HRESNO 15.7¢Risks 15.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +15.75u · HRES −15.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:04:25+00:00	61.2%	90.6%	58.1%	46.9%	34.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	61.2%	90.6%	58.1%	46.9%	34.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00	61.2%	90.6%	58.1%	46.9%	34.7%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	61.2%	90.6%	58.1%	46.9%	34.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:28+00:00	61.2%	97.7%	63.4%	46.9%	34.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:44+00:00	61.2%	97.7%	63.4%	46.9%	34.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	61.2%	97.7%	63.4%	46.9%	34.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	61.2%	97.7%	63.4%	46.9%	34.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	60.5%	97.7%	63.4%	46.9%	34.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	60.5%	97.9%	63.4%	46.9%	34.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:57+00:00	60.5%	97.9%	63.4%	46.9%	34.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	60.5%	97.9%	63.4%	46.9%	34.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:14+00:00	60.5%	97.9%	61.8%	46.9%	34.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	60.5%	97.9%	61.8%	46.9%	34.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	60.5%	97.9%	61.8%	46.9%	34.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	52.8%	97.9%	61.8%	46.9%	85.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00	52.8%	97.9%	61.8%	46.9%	85.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	52.8%	97.9%	61.8%	46.9%	85.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	52.8%	97.9%	61.8%	46.9%	85.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:28+00:00	52.8%	97.9%	61.8%	46.9%	85.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	52.8%	97.9%	60.3%	46.9%	85.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00	52.8%	97.9%	60.3%	46.9%	85.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	52.8%	97.9%	60.3%	46.9%	85.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	53.5%	97.9%	60.3%	46.9%	85.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	53.5%	97.9%	60.3%	46.9%	85.0%
2026-10-14T03:00:16+00:00	53.5%	97.9%	60.3%	46.9%	85.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	53.5%	97.9%	60.3%	46.9%	85.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	53.5%	97.9%	60.3%	46.9%	85.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	53.5%	97.9%	60.3%	46.9%	85.0%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	53.5%	97.9%	60.3%	46.9%	85.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:21+00:00	53.5%	97.9%	60.3%	46.9%	85.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00	48.5%	97.9%	60.3%	46.9%	52.8%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	48.5%	97.9%	60.3%	46.9%	52.8%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	48.5%	97.9%	60.3%	46.9%	52.8%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	48.5%	97.9%	60.3%	46.9%	52.8%
2026-10-14T10:34:59+00:00	48.5%	97.9%	60.3%	40.4%	52.8%
2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:00	48.5%	91.7%	61.1%	40.4%	52.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:16+00:00	48.5%	91.7%	61.1%	40.4%	52.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	48.5%	91.7%	61.1%	40.4%	52.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	55.3%	91.7%	61.1%	40.4%	52.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	55.9%	91.6%	61.0%	40.4%	52.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:41+00:00	58.8%	91.5%	66.6%	70.3%	79.0%
2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00	58.8%	91.5%	66.6%	70.3%	79.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	58.8%	91.5%	68.9%	70.3%	79.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	58.8%	91.5%	68.9%	70.3%	79.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:42+00:00	58.8%	91.5%	68.9%	70.3%	79.0%
2026-10-15T07:50:40+00:00	53.2%	91.5%	68.9%	56.2%	52.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	53.2%	91.5%	68.9%	56.2%	52.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	53.2%	91.5%	68.9%	56.2%	52.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	53.2%	91.5%	68.9%	56.2%	52.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:49+00:00	53.2%	91.5%	71.2%	56.2%	52.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:43+00:00	53.2%	91.5%	71.2%	56.2%	52.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	53.2%	97.7%	71.2%	56.2%	52.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:41+00:00	53.2%	97.7%	71.2%	56.2%	52.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	54.8%	97.7%	71.2%	56.2%	53.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	54.8%	97.7%	71.2%	56.2%	53.3%
2026-10-16T04:25:13+00:00	59.6%	98.1%	65.1%	56.9%	54.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:34+00:00	59.6%	98.1%	66.0%	56.9%	54.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	59.6%	98.1%	66.0%	56.9%	54.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	59.6%	98.1%	66.0%	56.9%	54.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	64.4%	98.1%	66.0%	56.9%	88.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	64.4%	98.1%	66.0%	56.9%	88.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	64.4%	98.1%	66.0%	56.9%	88.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	64.4%	98.1%	66.0%	56.9%	88.4%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	64.4%	98.1%	66.0%	56.9%	88.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	64.4%	94.6%	73.2%	56.9%	88.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	64.4%	94.6%	73.2%	56.9%	88.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	64.4%	94.6%	73.2%	56.9%	88.4%
2026-10-16T13:29:03+00:00	65.3%	94.6%	73.2%	44.4%	88.4%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	65.3%	94.6%	73.2%	44.4%	88.4%
2026-10-17T04:42:39+00:00	67.7%	95.0%	78.2%	54.0%	89.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	67.7%	95.0%	79.0%	54.0%	89.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	67.7%	95.0%	79.0%	54.0%	89.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	67.7%	95.0%	79.0%	54.0%	89.2%
2026-10-17T07:45:19+00:00	84.2%	95.0%	79.0%	69.7%	90.5%
2026-10-17T08:31:11+00:00	84.2%	95.0%	79.0%	69.7%	90.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	84.2%	95.0%	79.0%	69.7%	90.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	84.2%	95.0%	79.0%	69.7%	90.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	84.2%	95.0%	79.0%	69.7%	90.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00	84.2%	96.3%	87.0%	69.7%	90.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	84.2%	96.3%	87.0%	69.7%	90.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	84.2%	96.3%	87.0%	69.7%	90.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	79.3%	96.3%	87.0%	69.7%	90.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	79.3%	96.1%	87.0%	69.7%	90.5%
2026-10-17T15:25:21+00:00	79.3%	95.8%	87.0%	69.7%	90.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	79.3%	95.8%	87.0%	69.7%	90.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	79.3%	95.8%	81.3%	69.7%	90.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	79.3%	95.8%	81.3%	69.7%	90.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	79.3%	95.8%	81.3%	69.7%	90.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	79.3%	95.8%	81.3%	69.7%	90.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	86.4%	95.8%	81.3%	72.7%	94.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	86.4%	95.8%	81.3%	72.7%	94.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	86.4%	95.8%	81.3%	72.7%	94.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	86.4%	95.8%	81.3%	72.7%	94.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	86.4%	95.8%	82.1%	72.7%	94.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	86.4%	95.8%	82.1%	72.7%	94.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	86.4%	95.8%	82.1%	72.7%	94.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	86.4%	95.8%	82.1%	72.7%	94.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	88.8%	95.8%	82.1%	72.7%	94.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	88.8%	95.8%	82.1%	72.7%	94.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	88.8%	95.8%	82.1%	72.7%	94.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	78.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	95%	79.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	77.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	75.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	75.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	73.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗