KSAN / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

95%

89%

82%

73%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 84.2¢Risks 84.25u

HRESNO 15.7¢Risks 15.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +15.75u · HRES −15.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	35.3%	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	37.8%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	7.7%	40.6%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	28.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	84.7%	32.3%	33.0%	—	40.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.5%	28.5%	76.8%	45.6%	—	47.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	65.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	65.6%	36.5%	47.7%	—	53.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	33.0%	27.4%	62.5%	—	44.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	33.8%	37.7%	55.0%	—	37.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.0%	44.0%	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	81.6%	45.6%	74.5%	—	37.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	72.1%	45.5%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	84.0%	49.1%	85.1%	—	34.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	87.8%	40.6%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	86.4%	61.5%	70.4%	—	40.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	92.4%	72.6%	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	93.3%	76.5%	75.7%	1.5%	42.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	96.5%	56.3%	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	64.9%	98.9%	72.7%	84.5%	—	40.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	98.6%	75.1%	16.8%	—	42.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	63.7%	95.5%	81.0%	81.0%	0.1%	45.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	97.1%	73.7%	84.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	97.7%	72.4%	77.3%	86.3%	50.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	98.6%	73.1%	82.6%	—	42.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	59.3%	98.7%	76.0%	82.7%	85.1%	43.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	99.6%	63.7%	88.2%	—	45.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	99.6%	68.2%	91.1%	91.1%	42.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	71.5%	85.6%	—	38.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	78.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	95%	79.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	77.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	75.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	75.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	73.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗