KSAN / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 07:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 11.2¢Risks 5.60u

HRESNO 88.8¢Risks 44.40u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.40u · HRES −44.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	2.5%	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	2.6%	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.1%	2.7%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	23.0%	1.3%	1.4%	—	2.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	19.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.8%	13.6%	2.6%	—	2.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	6.5%	1.2%	2.4%	—	3.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.7%	0.5%	4.7%	—	1.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.6%	0.8%	2.5%	—	0.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.1%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	9.7%	1.1%	6.2%	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	4.8%	0.9%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	9.4%	1.0%	10.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	11.3%	0.4%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	9.0%	1.6%	2.9%	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	14.0%	2.8%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	13.9%	3.2%	3.0%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	19.8%	0.6%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	32.1%	1.6%	4.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	26.7%	1.6%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	11.0%	2.1%	2.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	13.2%	0.9%	2.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	13.0%	0.6%	0.9%	2.1%	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	15.0%	0.4%	1.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	12.7%	0.4%	0.8%	1.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	20.1%	0.1%	1.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	15.4%	0.1%	1.1%	1.1%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	0.3%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	20%	79.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	10%	77.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	77.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	76.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	74.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261020-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗