KSAN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

62%

61%

49%

37%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 57.9¢Risks 57.85u

AIFSNO 42.1¢Risks 42.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +42.15u · AIFS −42.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:34:59+00:00	44.3%	56.5%	55.2%	40.6%	18.8%
2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:00	44.3%	61.2%	50.8%	40.6%	18.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:16+00:00	44.3%	61.2%	50.8%	40.6%	18.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	44.3%	61.2%	50.8%	40.6%	18.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	36.8%	61.2%	50.8%	40.6%	18.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	36.8%	61.2%	50.8%	40.6%	19.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:48+00:00	36.8%	62.3%	50.8%	40.6%	19.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	36.8%	62.3%	50.8%	40.6%	19.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	36.8%	62.3%	50.8%	40.6%	19.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	36.8%	62.3%	55.6%	40.6%	19.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	36.8%	62.3%	55.6%	40.6%	19.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	36.8%	62.3%	55.6%	40.6%	19.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	63.9%	62.3%	55.6%	78.9%	49.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	63.9%	62.3%	55.6%	78.9%	49.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	63.9%	62.3%	55.6%	78.9%	49.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	63.9%	62.3%	55.6%	78.9%	49.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	63.9%	62.3%	55.6%	78.9%	49.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	63.9%	62.3%	61.0%	78.9%	49.2%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	63.9%	62.3%	61.0%	78.9%	49.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	63.9%	62.3%	61.0%	78.9%	49.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	36.8%	62.3%	61.0%	78.9%	49.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	36.8%	62.3%	61.0%	78.9%	49.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	36.8%	62.3%	61.0%	78.9%	49.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	79%	76.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	74.0°F	8.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	72.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	72.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
ICON	49%	71.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	69.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261021-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 72°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗