KSAN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

62%

61%

49%

37%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 57.9¢Risks 57.85u

AIFSNO 42.1¢Risks 42.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +42.15u · AIFS −42.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	58.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	21.4%	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	21.2%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	1.2%	42.6%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	19.9%	24.6%	11.9%	—	51.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	15.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	17.5%	24.3%	70.9%	—	43.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	14.2%	27.0%	16.0%	—	40.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	71.9%	67.0%	71.2%	—	37.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	84.3%	30.8%	63.1%	—	38.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	63.4%	25.3%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	74.5%	61.3%	80.4%	—	53.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	93.2%	63.2%	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	97.1%	74.1%	79.1%	—	54.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	71.6%	96.6%	69.9%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	79.7%	99.5%	72.9%	89.3%	—	53.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	78.1%	96.0%	79.6%	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	90.1%	83.7%	81.7%	—	53.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	93.5%	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	83.1%	96.7%	78.7%	69.9%	—	58.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	77.7%	95.5%	97.1%	19.0%	—	54.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	96.2%	94.3%	95.2%	0.7%	53.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	92.6%	97.5%	89.2%	—	60.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	77.3%	99.7%	96.0%	90.5%	81.8%	58.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	89.7%	90.8%	—	62.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	79%	76.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	74.0°F	8.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	72.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	72.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
ICON	49%	71.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	69.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261021-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 72°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗