KSAN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

53%

48%

44%

34%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.5¢Risks 47.50u

ICONNO 52.5¢Risks 52.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.50u · ICON −52.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:41+00:00	30.3%	57.4%	53.2%	74.1%	45.2%
2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00	30.3%	57.4%	53.2%	74.1%	45.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	30.3%	57.4%	46.0%	74.1%	45.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	30.3%	57.4%	46.0%	74.1%	45.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:42+00:00	30.3%	57.4%	46.0%	74.1%	45.2%
2026-10-15T07:50:40+00:00	24.0%	57.4%	46.0%	50.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	24.0%	57.4%	46.0%	50.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	24.0%	57.4%	46.0%	50.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	24.0%	57.4%	46.0%	50.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T10:53:49+00:00	24.0%	57.4%	53.4%	50.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:43+00:00	24.0%	57.4%	53.4%	50.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	24.0%	59.9%	53.4%	50.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:41+00:00	24.0%	59.9%	53.4%	50.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	29.5%	59.9%	53.4%	50.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	29.5%	59.9%	53.4%	50.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T15:34:45+00:00	29.5%	61.3%	53.4%	50.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	29.5%	61.3%	53.4%	50.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	29.5%	61.3%	56.8%	50.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	29.5%	61.3%	56.8%	50.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	29.5%	61.3%	56.8%	50.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	29.5%	61.3%	56.8%	50.0%	36.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	27.6%	61.3%	56.8%	44.0%	33.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	27.6%	61.3%	56.8%	44.0%	33.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	27.6%	61.3%	56.8%	44.0%	33.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	27.6%	61.3%	56.8%	44.0%	33.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	27.6%	61.3%	48.3%	44.0%	33.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	27.6%	61.3%	48.3%	44.0%	33.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	27.6%	61.3%	48.3%	44.0%	33.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	53.0%	61.3%	48.3%	44.0%	33.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	53.0%	61.3%	48.3%	44.0%	33.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	53.0%	61.3%	48.3%	44.0%	33.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	53.0%	61.3%	48.3%	44.0%	33.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	61%	74.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	72.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	72.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	72.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	71.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	34%	69.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗