KSAN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

53%

48%

44%

34%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.5¢Risks 47.50u

ICONNO 52.5¢Risks 52.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.50u · ICON −52.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	52.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	17.3%	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	25.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	16.8%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	0.8%	36.1%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.1%	15.3%	19.4%	8.7%	—	44.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	13.2%	18.9%	64.3%	—	36.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	10.3%	21.1%	11.8%	—	33.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	64.8%	59.5%	64.1%	—	30.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	78.7%	23.8%	55.0%	—	30.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	55.1%	19.0%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	67.0%	52.6%	73.8%	—	44.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	89.6%	54.5%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	58.2%	95.2%	66.1%	71.8%	—	45.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	94.4%	61.2%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	99.0%	64.3%	84.1%	—	44.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	70.1%	93.4%	71.8%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	84.9%	76.5%	74.1%	—	42.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	89.4%	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	75.3%	94.1%	69.9%	59.7%	—	47.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	92.1%	94.6%	12.3%	—	43.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	62.6%	93.2%	90.0%	91.5%	0.3%	41.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	87.4%	95.2%	82.5%	—	48.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	99.3%	92.5%	84.1%	72.4%	46.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	82.6%	84.2%	—	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	61%	74.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	72.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	72.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	72.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	71.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	34%	69.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗