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KSAN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
98%
WN2
86%
AIFS
83%
EPS
71%
HRES
47%
Consensus
81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 72.7¢Risks 72.70u
VS
HRESNO 27.3¢Risks 27.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +27.30u · HRES −27.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 77.7% · 2026-10-18T04:14:58+00:00AIFS Single: 77.7% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00AIFS Single: 77.7% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00AIFS Single: 77.7% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00AIFS Single: 77.7% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00AIFS Single: 85.3% · 2026-10-18T08:01:57+00:00AIFS Single: 85.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00AIFS Single: 85.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00AIFS Single: 85.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00AIFS Single: 85.3% · 2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00AIFS Single: 85.3% · 2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00AIFS Single: 85.3% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00AIFS Single: 85.3% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.9% · 2026-10-18T04:14:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.9% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.9% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.9% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.9% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.4% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.8% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.4% · 2026-10-18T04:14:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00IFS HRES: 43.6% · 2026-10-18T04:14:58+00:00IFS HRES: 43.6% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00IFS HRES: 43.6% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00IFS HRES: 43.6% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS HRES: 43.6% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-18T08:01:57+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS HRES: 47.3% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-18T04:14:58+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00ICON: 92.1% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00ICON: 98.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:57+00:00ICON: 98.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00ICON: 98.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00ICON: 98.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00ICON: 98.2% · 2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00ICON: 98.2% · 2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00ICON: 98.2% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00ICON: 98.2% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00ICON: 98.1% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:0010-18 04:1410-18 09:3210-18 14:04
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:14:58+00:0077.7%69.9%70.4%43.6%92.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:0077.7%69.9%76.5%43.6%92.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:0077.7%69.9%76.5%43.6%92.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:0077.7%69.9%76.5%43.6%92.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:0077.7%69.9%76.5%43.6%92.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:57+00:0085.3%69.9%76.5%47.3%98.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:0085.3%69.9%76.5%47.3%98.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:0085.3%69.9%76.5%47.3%98.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:0085.3%69.9%76.5%47.3%98.2%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:0085.3%71.4%86.4%47.3%98.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:0085.3%71.4%86.4%47.3%98.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:0085.3%71.4%86.4%47.3%98.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:0085.3%71.4%86.4%47.3%98.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:0083.2%70.8%86.4%47.3%98.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON98%82.8°F4.0°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 286%78.2°F3.4°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single83%78.6°F4.3°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble71%76.8°F4.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%75.0°F3.9°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
National Blend55%75.0°F4.5°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS HRES47%74.2°F4.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗