KSAN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

86%

83%

71%

47%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 72.7¢Risks 72.70u

HRESNO 27.3¢Risks 27.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +27.30u · HRES −27.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	41.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	10.8%	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	9.9%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	0.3%	24.4%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	8.5%	11.2%	4.4%	—	31.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	6.9%	10.6%	50.0%	—	23.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	15.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	5.0%	11.8%	5.8%	—	21.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	49.2%	43.6%	48.4%	—	17.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	64.7%	12.9%	38.5%	—	17.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	38.2%	9.5%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	50.0%	35.4%	57.8%	—	28.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	79.1%	36.8%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	88.5%	48.2%	54.6%	—	28.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	86.8%	42.5%	—	—	27.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	53.9%	96.8%	45.1%	69.6%	—	26.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	51.0%	84.2%	53.0%	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	45.9%	69.7%	58.2%	55.1%	—	24.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	76.3%	41.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	84.5%	48.9%	38.2%	—	27.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	80.2%	85.2%	4.2%	—	23.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	81.7%	75.8%	78.5%	0.0%	21.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	70.7%	85.5%	63.0%	—	26.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	96.5%	79.2%	64.6%	48.8%	23.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	61.5%	63.9%	—	25.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	98%	82.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	78.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	78.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	76.8°F	4.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	74.2°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗