KSAN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

77%

64%

59%

30%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.5¢Risks 53.50u

HRESNO 46.5¢Risks 46.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.50u · HRES −46.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	33.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	6.3%	—	—	22.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	5.3%	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	0.1%	15.1%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	4.2%	5.8%	2.0%	—	19.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	3.2%	5.3%	35.7%	—	14.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	2.1%	5.8%	2.5%	—	11.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	33.7%	28.8%	33.0%	—	9.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	48.3%	6.1%	23.8%	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	23.3%	4.1%	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	33.0%	20.8%	40.5%	—	15.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	64.1%	21.5%	—	—	16.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	77.0%	30.6%	36.4%	—	14.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	73.9%	25.3%	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	91.4%	27.1%	51.0%	—	13.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	69.2%	33.5%	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	50.0%	37.8%	34.9%	—	11.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	57.4%	22.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	67.9%	28.2%	19.8%	—	12.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	61.1%	68.5%	1.1%	—	9.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	62.6%	54.6%	58.1%	0.0%	8.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	47.6%	67.5%	39.3%	—	10.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	88.2%	57.4%	40.1%	25.6%	8.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	36.1%	38.5%	—	9.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	78%	78.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	77%	79.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	77.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	77.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	74.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗