KSAN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

19%

18%

17%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.9¢Risks 13.90u

HRESNO 86.1¢Risks 86.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.10u · HRES −86.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:00	2.7%	17.1%	2.3%	3.5%	2.9%
2026-10-14T12:06:16+00:00	2.7%	17.1%	2.3%	3.5%	2.9%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	2.7%	17.1%	2.3%	3.5%	2.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:48+00:00	1.7%	17.4%	2.4%	3.5%	3.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	1.7%	17.4%	2.4%	3.5%	3.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	1.7%	17.4%	2.4%	3.5%	3.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	1.7%	17.4%	3.2%	3.5%	3.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	1.7%	17.4%	3.2%	3.5%	3.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	1.7%	17.4%	3.2%	3.5%	3.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	7.7%	17.4%	3.2%	22.0%	15.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	7.7%	17.4%	3.2%	22.0%	15.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	7.7%	17.4%	3.2%	22.0%	15.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	7.7%	17.4%	3.2%	22.0%	15.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	7.7%	17.4%	3.2%	22.0%	15.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	7.7%	17.4%	4.3%	22.0%	15.2%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	7.7%	17.4%	4.3%	22.0%	15.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	7.7%	17.4%	4.3%	22.0%	15.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	1.7%	17.4%	4.3%	22.0%	15.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	1.7%	17.4%	4.3%	22.0%	15.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	1.7%	17.4%	4.3%	22.0%	15.2%
2026-10-15T04:02:41+00:00	1.7%	17.4%	4.3%	22.0%	15.2%
2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00	1.7%	17.4%	4.3%	22.0%	15.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	1.7%	17.4%	2.9%	22.0%	15.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	1.7%	17.4%	2.9%	22.0%	15.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:42+00:00	1.7%	17.4%	2.9%	22.0%	15.2%
2026-10-15T07:50:40+00:00	0.9%	17.4%	2.9%	8.6%	5.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	0.9%	17.4%	2.9%	8.6%	5.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	0.9%	17.4%	2.9%	8.6%	5.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	0.9%	17.4%	2.9%	8.6%	5.2%
2026-10-15T10:53:50+00:00	0.9%	17.4%	3.3%	8.6%	5.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:43+00:00	0.9%	17.4%	3.3%	8.6%	5.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	0.9%	8.7%	3.3%	8.6%	5.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:41+00:00	0.9%	8.7%	3.3%	8.6%	5.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	1.4%	8.7%	3.3%	8.6%	5.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	1.4%	8.7%	3.3%	8.6%	5.3%
2026-10-15T15:34:45+00:00	1.4%	9.2%	3.3%	8.6%	5.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	1.4%	9.2%	3.3%	8.6%	5.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	1.4%	9.2%	4.0%	8.6%	5.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	1.4%	9.2%	4.0%	8.6%	5.3%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	1.4%	9.2%	4.0%	8.6%	5.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	1.4%	9.2%	4.0%	8.6%	5.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	1.2%	9.2%	4.0%	6.5%	4.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	1.2%	9.2%	4.0%	6.5%	4.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	1.2%	9.2%	4.0%	6.5%	4.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	1.2%	9.2%	4.0%	6.5%	4.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	1.2%	9.2%	2.4%	6.5%	4.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	1.2%	9.2%	2.4%	6.5%	4.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	1.2%	9.2%	2.4%	6.5%	4.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	5.5%	9.2%	2.4%	6.5%	4.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	5.5%	9.2%	2.4%	6.5%	4.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	5.5%	9.2%	2.4%	6.5%	4.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	5.5%	9.2%	2.4%	6.5%	4.6%
2026-10-16T04:25:14+00:00	5.5%	9.2%	2.4%	6.5%	4.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:34+00:00	5.5%	9.2%	2.8%	6.5%	4.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	5.5%	9.2%	2.8%	6.5%	4.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	5.5%	9.2%	2.8%	6.5%	4.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	2.9%	9.2%	2.8%	6.5%	23.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	2.9%	9.2%	2.8%	6.5%	23.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	2.9%	9.2%	2.8%	6.5%	23.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	2.9%	9.2%	2.8%	6.5%	23.1%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	2.9%	9.2%	2.8%	6.5%	23.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	2.9%	6.8%	1.3%	6.5%	23.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	2.9%	6.8%	1.3%	6.5%	23.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	2.9%	6.8%	1.3%	6.5%	23.1%
2026-10-16T13:29:04+00:00	4.9%	6.8%	1.3%	2.1%	23.1%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	4.9%	6.8%	1.3%	2.1%	23.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:51+00:00	4.9%	8.2%	1.3%	2.1%	23.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	4.9%	8.2%	1.3%	2.1%	23.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	4.9%	8.2%	1.3%	2.1%	23.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	4.9%	8.2%	2.3%	2.1%	23.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	4.9%	8.2%	2.3%	2.1%	23.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	4.9%	8.2%	2.3%	2.1%	23.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:18+00:00	7.1%	8.2%	2.3%	2.1%	33.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	7.1%	8.2%	2.3%	2.1%	33.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	7.1%	8.2%	2.3%	2.1%	33.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	7.1%	8.2%	2.3%	2.1%	33.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	7.1%	8.2%	2.3%	4.3%	33.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	7.1%	8.2%	4.7%	4.3%	33.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	7.1%	8.2%	4.7%	4.3%	33.9%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	7.1%	8.2%	4.7%	4.3%	33.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	7.3%	8.2%	4.7%	4.3%	33.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	7.3%	8.2%	4.7%	4.3%	33.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00	7.3%	8.2%	4.7%	4.3%	33.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	7.3%	8.2%	4.7%	4.3%	33.9%
2026-10-17T04:42:39+00:00	7.3%	8.2%	4.7%	4.3%	33.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	7.3%	8.2%	5.4%	4.3%	33.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	7.3%	8.2%	5.4%	4.3%	33.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	7.3%	8.2%	5.4%	4.3%	33.9%
2026-10-17T07:45:19+00:00	20.3%	8.2%	5.4%	4.8%	13.8%
2026-10-17T08:31:11+00:00	20.3%	8.2%	5.4%	4.8%	13.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	20.3%	8.2%	5.4%	4.8%	13.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	20.3%	8.2%	5.4%	4.8%	13.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	20.3%	8.2%	5.4%	4.8%	13.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00	20.3%	18.6%	10.8%	4.8%	13.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	20.3%	18.6%	10.8%	4.8%	13.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	20.3%	18.6%	10.8%	4.8%	13.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	13.7%	18.6%	10.8%	4.8%	13.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	13.8%	18.9%	10.9%	4.8%	13.9%
2026-10-17T15:25:21+00:00	13.8%	23.0%	10.9%	4.8%	13.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	13.8%	23.0%	10.9%	4.8%	13.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	13.8%	23.0%	5.7%	4.8%	13.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	13.8%	23.0%	5.7%	4.8%	13.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	13.8%	23.0%	5.7%	4.8%	13.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	13.8%	23.0%	5.7%	4.8%	13.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	19.8%	23.0%	5.7%	5.9%	49.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	19.8%	23.0%	5.7%	5.9%	49.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	19.8%	23.0%	5.7%	5.9%	49.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	19.8%	23.0%	5.7%	5.9%	49.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	19.8%	23.0%	9.0%	5.9%	49.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	19.8%	23.0%	9.0%	5.9%	49.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	19.8%	23.0%	9.0%	5.9%	49.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	19.8%	23.0%	9.0%	5.9%	49.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	22.3%	23.0%	9.0%	5.9%	49.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	22.3%	23.0%	9.0%	5.9%	49.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	22.3%	23.0%	9.0%	5.9%	49.2%
2026-10-18T04:15:00+00:00	22.3%	23.0%	9.0%	5.9%	49.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	22.3%	23.0%	12.4%	5.9%	49.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	22.3%	23.0%	12.4%	5.9%	49.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	22.3%	23.0%	12.4%	5.9%	49.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	22.3%	23.0%	12.4%	5.9%	49.2%
2026-10-18T08:01:57+00:00	28.0%	23.0%	12.4%	5.1%	62.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	28.0%	23.0%	12.4%	5.1%	62.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	28.0%	23.0%	12.4%	5.1%	62.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	28.0%	23.0%	12.4%	5.1%	62.8%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	28.0%	12.4%	16.4%	5.1%	62.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	28.0%	12.4%	16.4%	5.1%	62.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	28.0%	12.4%	16.4%	5.1%	62.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	28.0%	12.4%	16.4%	5.1%	62.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	24.9%	13.2%	16.4%	5.1%	62.8%
2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:00	24.9%	13.2%	16.4%	5.1%	62.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	24.9%	14.1%	16.4%	5.1%	62.8%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	24.9%	14.1%	16.4%	5.1%	62.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	24.9%	14.1%	19.5%	5.1%	62.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:38+00:00	24.9%	14.1%	19.5%	5.1%	62.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	24.9%	14.1%	19.5%	5.1%	62.8%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	22.0%	14.1%	19.5%	4.2%	14.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	22.0%	14.1%	19.5%	4.2%	14.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	22.0%	14.1%	19.5%	4.2%	14.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	22.0%	14.1%	19.5%	4.2%	14.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	22.0%	14.1%	19.5%	4.2%	14.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	22.0%	14.1%	16.4%	4.2%	14.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	22.0%	14.1%	16.4%	4.2%	14.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	22.0%	14.1%	16.4%	4.2%	14.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	22.7%	14.1%	16.4%	4.2%	14.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	22.7%	14.1%	16.4%	4.2%	14.1%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	22.7%	14.1%	16.4%	4.2%	14.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	22.7%	14.1%	16.4%	4.2%	14.1%
2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:00	22.7%	14.1%	16.4%	4.2%	14.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	22.7%	14.1%	16.4%	4.2%	14.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	22.7%	14.1%	16.4%	4.2%	14.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	22.7%	14.1%	16.4%	4.2%	14.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:57+00:00	26.9%	14.1%	16.4%	5.6%	15.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	26.9%	14.1%	16.4%	5.6%	15.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	26.9%	14.1%	16.4%	5.6%	15.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	26.9%	14.1%	16.4%	5.6%	15.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:00	26.9%	14.1%	16.4%	5.6%	15.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:00	26.9%	13.8%	25.9%	5.6%	15.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00	26.9%	13.8%	25.9%	5.6%	15.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	26.9%	13.8%	25.9%	5.6%	15.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	20.1%	13.8%	25.9%	5.6%	15.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	20.0%	13.8%	25.9%	5.6%	15.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:59+00:00	20.0%	13.8%	25.9%	5.6%	15.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	20.0%	13.8%	25.9%	5.6%	15.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	20.0%	13.8%	25.9%	5.6%	15.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	20.0%	13.8%	17.5%	5.6%	15.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	20.0%	13.8%	17.5%	5.6%	15.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	20.0%	13.8%	17.5%	5.6%	15.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	16.7%	13.8%	17.5%	4.9%	11.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	16.7%	13.8%	17.5%	4.9%	11.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	16.7%	13.8%	17.5%	4.9%	11.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	16.7%	13.8%	17.5%	4.9%	11.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	16.7%	13.8%	17.5%	4.9%	11.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	16.7%	13.8%	14.4%	4.9%	11.9%
2026-10-20T00:17:11+00:00	16.7%	13.8%	14.4%	4.9%	11.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	16.7%	13.8%	14.4%	4.9%	11.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	18.0%	13.8%	14.4%	4.9%	11.9%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	18.0%	13.8%	14.4%	4.9%	11.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	18.0%	13.8%	14.4%	4.9%	11.9%
2026-10-20T04:05:50+00:00	18.0%	13.8%	14.4%	4.9%	11.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	18.0%	13.8%	14.4%	4.9%	11.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00	18.0%	13.8%	15.9%	4.9%	11.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	18.0%	13.8%	15.9%	4.9%	11.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	18.0%	13.8%	15.9%	4.9%	11.9%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	18.0%	13.8%	15.9%	4.9%	24.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	18.0%	13.8%	15.9%	4.9%	24.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	18.0%	13.8%	15.9%	4.9%	24.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	18.0%	13.8%	15.9%	4.9%	24.9%
2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:00	18.0%	18.8%	16.8%	3.0%	24.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00	18.0%	18.8%	16.8%	3.0%	24.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	18.0%	18.8%	16.8%	3.0%	24.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	18.0%	18.8%	16.8%	3.0%	24.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	17.9%	18.8%	16.8%	3.0%	24.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	25%	79.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	77.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	18%	77.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	78.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	74.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261021-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 14 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗