KSAN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

19%

18%

17%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.9¢Risks 13.90u

HRESNO 86.1¢Risks 86.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.10u · HRES −86.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	1.2%	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.8%	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.0%	3.0%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.5%	0.7%	0.2%	—	4.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	0.6%	10.0%	—	2.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.6%	0.2%	—	1.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	7.8%	5.9%	7.5%	—	1.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	13.8%	0.5%	3.9%	—	0.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	3.6%	0.2%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	6.2%	2.8%	9.0%	—	1.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	22.2%	2.8%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	33.9%	4.8%	6.6%	—	1.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	29.2%	3.2%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	55.8%	3.4%	11.6%	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	22.6%	4.7%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	9.8%	5.5%	4.7%	—	0.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	12.7%	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	18.3%	2.6%	1.3%	—	0.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	12.9%	17.5%	0.0%	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	12.7%	9.0%	10.5%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	5.8%	14.5%	3.7%	—	0.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	35.4%	8.5%	3.5%	1.3%	0.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	2.4%	2.8%	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	25%	79.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	77.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	18%	77.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	78.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	74.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261021-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 14 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗