KSAN / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

88%

83%

77%

65%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 77.3¢Risks 77.30u

HRESNO 22.7¢Risks 22.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +22.70u · HRES −22.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:25:21+00:00	74.8%	89.2%	94.6%	79.6%	78.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	74.8%	89.2%	94.6%	79.6%	78.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	74.8%	89.2%	88.3%	79.6%	78.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	74.8%	89.2%	88.3%	79.6%	78.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	74.8%	89.2%	88.3%	79.6%	78.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	74.8%	89.2%	88.3%	79.6%	78.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	80.2%	89.2%	88.3%	65.4%	76.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	80.2%	89.2%	88.3%	65.4%	76.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	80.2%	89.2%	88.3%	65.4%	76.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	80.2%	89.2%	88.3%	65.4%	76.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	80.2%	89.2%	88.3%	65.4%	76.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	80.2%	89.2%	88.3%	65.4%	76.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	80.2%	89.2%	88.3%	65.4%	76.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	80.2%	89.2%	88.3%	65.4%	76.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	82.9%	89.2%	88.3%	65.4%	76.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	82.9%	89.2%	88.3%	65.4%	76.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	82.9%	89.2%	88.3%	65.4%	76.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	75.2°F	6.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	72.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	72.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	77%	72.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	69.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗