KSAN / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

88%

83%

77%

65%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 77.3¢Risks 77.30u

HRESNO 22.7¢Risks 22.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +22.70u · HRES −22.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	82.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	75.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	—	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	62.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	60.6%	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	46.8%	—	—	75.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	4.7%	67.0%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	69.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	57.7%	69.5%	10.2%	—	67.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	64.3%	72.8%	76.8%	—	65.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	85.8%	63.5%	65.6%	—	66.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	70.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	66.3%	64.1%	87.3%	—	75.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	64.4%	—	—	73.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	64.7%	63.9%	77.5%	—	73.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	56.8%	65.0%	—	—	71.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	47.4%	56.1%	77.9%	78.6%	—	69.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	51.8%	75.8%	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	58.2%	67.8%	89.4%	—	70.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	96.0%	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	65.2%	70.4%	79.7%	—	76.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	77.4%	77.4%	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	58.2%	85.5%	74.1%	92.9%	—	75.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	88.4%	75.5%	—	—	81.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	69.9%	81.7%	94.1%	39.2%	81.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	81.0%	65.4%	—	82.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	75.2°F	6.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	72.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	72.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	77%	72.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	69.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗