KSAN / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

86%

74%

73%

68%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 79.6¢Risks 79.60u

AIFSNO 20.4¢Risks 20.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +20.40u · AIFS −20.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:25:14+00:00	50.7%	68.9%	78.4%	64.6%	68.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:34+00:00	50.7%	68.9%	79.6%	64.6%	68.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	50.7%	68.9%	79.6%	64.6%	68.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	50.7%	68.9%	79.6%	64.6%	68.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	57.4%	68.9%	79.6%	64.6%	74.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	57.4%	68.9%	79.6%	64.6%	74.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	57.4%	68.9%	79.6%	64.6%	74.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	57.4%	68.9%	79.6%	64.6%	74.1%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	57.4%	68.9%	79.6%	64.6%	74.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	57.4%	62.6%	83.2%	64.6%	74.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	57.4%	62.6%	83.2%	64.6%	74.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	57.4%	62.6%	83.2%	64.6%	74.1%
2026-10-16T13:29:04+00:00	58.8%	62.6%	83.2%	52.4%	74.1%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	58.8%	62.5%	83.2%	52.4%	74.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:51+00:00	58.8%	64.4%	83.2%	52.4%	74.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	58.8%	64.5%	83.2%	52.4%	74.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	58.8%	64.5%	83.2%	52.4%	74.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	58.8%	64.5%	83.8%	52.4%	74.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	58.8%	64.5%	83.8%	52.4%	74.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	58.8%	64.5%	83.8%	52.4%	74.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:18+00:00	68.5%	64.5%	83.8%	52.4%	87.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	68.5%	64.5%	83.8%	52.4%	87.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	68.5%	64.5%	83.8%	52.4%	87.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	68.5%	64.5%	83.8%	52.4%	87.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	68.5%	64.5%	83.8%	62.5%	87.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	68.5%	64.5%	82.7%	62.5%	87.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	68.5%	64.5%	82.7%	62.5%	87.8%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	68.5%	64.5%	82.7%	62.5%	87.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	65.8%	64.5%	82.7%	62.5%	87.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	65.8%	64.5%	82.7%	62.5%	87.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00	65.8%	64.5%	82.7%	62.5%	87.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	65.8%	64.5%	82.7%	62.5%	87.8%
2026-10-17T04:42:39+00:00	65.8%	64.5%	82.7%	62.5%	87.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	65.8%	64.5%	85.3%	62.5%	87.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	65.8%	64.5%	85.3%	62.5%	87.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	65.8%	64.5%	85.3%	62.5%	87.8%
2026-10-17T07:45:20+00:00	81.8%	64.5%	85.3%	74.5%	73.6%
2026-10-17T08:31:11+00:00	81.8%	64.5%	85.3%	74.5%	73.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	81.8%	64.5%	85.3%	74.5%	73.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	81.8%	64.5%	85.3%	74.5%	73.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	81.8%	64.5%	85.3%	74.5%	73.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00	81.8%	85.7%	91.3%	74.5%	73.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	81.8%	85.7%	91.3%	74.5%	73.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	81.8%	85.7%	91.3%	74.5%	73.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	67.9%	85.7%	91.3%	74.5%	73.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	67.9%	85.7%	91.3%	74.4%	73.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	74.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	74.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	72.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	73%	72.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	70.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261022-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗