KSAN / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

86%

74%

73%

68%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 79.6¢Risks 79.60u

AIFSNO 20.4¢Risks 20.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +20.40u · AIFS −20.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	59.8%	—	—	—	—	70.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	—	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	—	64.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	56.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	54.4%	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	40.3%	—	—	70.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	63.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	3.2%	60.7%	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	50.7%	63.1%	7.4%	—	61.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	57.3%	66.3%	70.9%	—	58.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	81.1%	56.1%	58.3%	—	59.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	58.7%	56.4%	82.6%	—	68.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	56.5%	—	—	66.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	56.6%	55.8%	70.7%	—	66.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	48.3%	56.8%	—	—	64.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	47.4%	70.9%	71.6%	—	61.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	42.9%	68.2%	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	49.1%	59.1%	84.5%	—	61.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	49.0%	93.6%	65.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	55.8%	61.5%	72.1%	—	67.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	49.0%	69.2%	69.2%	—	—	59.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	78.8%	65.1%	88.7%	—	67.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	82.4%	66.5%	—	—	73.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	59.7%	73.6%	90.1%	29.2%	73.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	72.4%	54.5%	—	74.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	74.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	86%	74.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	72.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	73%	72.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	70.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261022-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗