KSAN / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

78%

73%

62%

36%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 62.3¢Risks 62.25u

ICONNO 37.7¢Risks 37.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.75u · ICON −37.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:50:40+00:00	42.9%	57.9%	67.8%	38.8%	20.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	42.9%	57.9%	67.8%	38.8%	20.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	42.9%	57.9%	67.8%	38.8%	20.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	42.9%	57.9%	67.8%	38.8%	20.2%
2026-10-18T04:15:00+00:00	63.4%	77.5%	67.8%	45.2%	59.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	63.4%	77.5%	68.7%	45.2%	59.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	63.4%	77.5%	68.7%	45.2%	59.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	63.4%	77.5%	68.7%	45.2%	59.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	63.4%	77.5%	68.7%	45.2%	59.7%
2026-10-18T08:01:57+00:00	58.6%	77.5%	68.7%	57.9%	45.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	58.6%	77.5%	68.7%	57.9%	45.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	58.6%	77.5%	68.7%	57.9%	45.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	58.6%	77.5%	68.7%	57.9%	45.1%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	58.6%	74.3%	73.1%	57.9%	45.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	58.6%	74.3%	73.1%	57.9%	45.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	58.6%	74.3%	73.1%	57.9%	45.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	58.6%	74.3%	73.1%	57.9%	45.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	61.1%	74.1%	73.1%	57.9%	45.1%
2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:00	61.1%	74.1%	73.1%	57.9%	45.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	61.1%	75.0%	73.1%	57.9%	45.1%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	61.1%	75.0%	73.1%	57.9%	45.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	61.1%	75.0%	78.2%	57.9%	45.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:38+00:00	61.1%	75.0%	78.2%	57.9%	45.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	61.1%	75.0%	78.2%	57.9%	45.1%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	62.0%	75.0%	78.2%	50.0%	46.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	62.0%	75.0%	78.2%	50.0%	46.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	62.0%	75.0%	78.2%	50.0%	46.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	62.0%	75.0%	78.2%	50.0%	46.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	62.0%	75.0%	78.2%	50.0%	46.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	62.0%	75.0%	74.0%	50.0%	46.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	62.0%	75.0%	74.0%	50.0%	46.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	62.0%	75.0%	74.0%	50.0%	46.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	67.6%	75.0%	74.0%	50.0%	46.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	67.6%	75.0%	74.0%	50.0%	46.7%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	67.6%	75.0%	74.0%	50.0%	46.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	67.6%	75.0%	74.0%	50.0%	46.7%
2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:00	67.6%	75.0%	74.0%	50.0%	46.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	67.6%	75.0%	79.7%	50.0%	46.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	67.6%	75.0%	79.7%	50.0%	46.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	67.6%	75.0%	79.7%	50.0%	46.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:57+00:00	74.4%	75.0%	79.7%	65.7%	43.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	74.4%	75.0%	79.7%	65.7%	43.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	74.4%	75.0%	79.7%	65.7%	43.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	74.4%	75.0%	79.7%	65.7%	43.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:00	74.4%	75.0%	79.7%	65.7%	43.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:00	74.4%	80.4%	83.6%	65.7%	43.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00	74.4%	80.4%	83.6%	65.7%	43.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	74.4%	80.4%	83.6%	65.7%	43.0%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	69.7%	80.4%	83.6%	65.7%	43.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	69.7%	80.4%	83.7%	65.7%	43.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:59+00:00	69.7%	80.4%	83.7%	65.7%	43.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	69.7%	80.4%	83.7%	65.7%	43.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	69.7%	80.4%	83.7%	65.7%	43.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	69.7%	80.4%	73.4%	65.7%	43.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	69.7%	80.4%	73.4%	65.7%	43.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	69.7%	80.4%	73.4%	65.7%	43.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	68.9%	80.4%	73.4%	47.3%	67.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	68.9%	80.4%	73.4%	47.3%	67.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	68.9%	80.4%	73.4%	47.3%	67.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	68.9%	80.4%	73.4%	47.3%	67.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	68.9%	80.4%	73.4%	47.3%	67.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	68.9%	80.4%	75.3%	47.3%	67.4%
2026-10-20T00:17:11+00:00	68.9%	80.4%	75.3%	47.3%	67.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	68.9%	80.4%	75.3%	47.3%	67.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	71.3%	80.4%	75.3%	47.3%	67.4%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	71.3%	80.4%	75.3%	47.3%	67.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	71.3%	80.4%	75.3%	47.3%	67.4%
2026-10-20T04:05:50+00:00	71.3%	80.4%	75.3%	47.3%	67.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	71.3%	80.4%	75.3%	47.3%	67.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00	71.3%	80.4%	76.2%	47.3%	67.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	71.3%	80.4%	76.2%	47.3%	67.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	71.3%	80.4%	76.2%	47.3%	67.4%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	73.2%	80.4%	76.2%	47.3%	34.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	73.2%	80.4%	76.2%	47.3%	34.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	73.2%	80.4%	76.2%	47.3%	34.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	73.2%	80.4%	76.2%	47.3%	34.7%
2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:00	73.2%	88.8%	78.1%	62.4%	34.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00	73.2%	88.8%	78.1%	62.4%	34.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	73.2%	88.8%	78.1%	62.4%	34.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	73.2%	88.8%	78.1%	62.4%	34.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	73.2%	88.8%	78.1%	62.4%	35.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	76.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	72.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	73.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	71.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	36%	69.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗