KSAN / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

78%

73%

62%

36%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 62.3¢Risks 62.25u

ICONNO 37.7¢Risks 37.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.75u · ICON −37.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	69.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	57.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	—	—	—	52.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	43.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	41.9%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	28.4%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	1.4%	47.3%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	36.9%	49.3%	3.6%	—	47.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	37.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	42.7%	52.2%	57.3%	—	44.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	69.1%	40.9%	43.2%	—	43.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	42.9%	40.5%	70.5%	—	53.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	40.3%	—	—	50.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	40.1%	39.3%	55.0%	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	31.9%	39.8%	—	—	47.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	30.7%	54.4%	55.2%	—	43.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	26.4%	50.9%	—	—	46.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	31.4%	40.9%	71.0%	—	43.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	85.2%	47.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	36.6%	42.3%	53.9%	—	49.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.9%	50.0%	50.0%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.5%	61.2%	44.9%	75.7%	—	46.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	65.5%	45.8%	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	38.2%	53.3%	77.0%	13.7%	53.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	51.1%	32.6%	—	53.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	76.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	72.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	73.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	71.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	36%	69.2°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	24%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗