KSAN / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

57%

53%

46%

31%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 44.2¢Risks 44.20u

AIFSNO 55.8¢Risks 55.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +55.80u · AIFS −55.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T10:53:50+00:00	36.1%	53.0%	64.8%	32.9%	17.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:43+00:00	36.1%	53.0%	64.8%	32.9%	17.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	36.1%	51.1%	64.8%	32.9%	17.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:41+00:00	36.1%	51.1%	64.8%	32.9%	17.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	41.7%	51.1%	64.6%	33.1%	17.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	41.7%	51.1%	64.6%	33.1%	17.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:45+00:00	41.7%	52.8%	64.6%	33.1%	17.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	41.7%	52.8%	64.6%	33.1%	17.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	41.7%	52.8%	65.3%	33.1%	17.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	41.7%	52.8%	65.3%	33.1%	17.4%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	41.7%	52.8%	65.3%	33.1%	17.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	41.7%	52.8%	65.3%	33.1%	17.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	39.6%	52.8%	65.3%	46.3%	56.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	39.6%	52.8%	65.3%	46.3%	56.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	39.6%	52.8%	65.3%	46.3%	56.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	39.6%	52.8%	65.3%	46.3%	56.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	39.6%	52.8%	57.8%	46.3%	56.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	39.6%	52.8%	57.8%	46.3%	56.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	39.6%	52.8%	57.8%	46.3%	56.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	30.6%	52.8%	57.8%	46.3%	56.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	30.6%	52.8%	57.8%	46.3%	56.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	30.6%	52.8%	57.8%	46.3%	56.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	30.6%	52.8%	57.8%	46.3%	56.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	58%	72.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	57%	73.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	72.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	70.9°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	31%	68.6°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261022-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 72°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗