KSAN / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

57%

53%

46%

31%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 44.2¢Risks 44.20u

AIFSNO 55.8¢Risks 55.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +55.80u · AIFS −55.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	65.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	59.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	—	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	—	—	—	46.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	37.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	35.9%	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	23.1%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	0.9%	40.6%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	30.5%	42.3%	2.4%	—	40.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	35.7%	44.9%	50.0%	—	37.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	62.0%	33.7%	35.8%	—	36.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	35.2%	33.0%	63.3%	—	45.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	32.6%	—	—	42.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	32.2%	31.5%	46.7%	—	41.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	24.6%	31.9%	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	23.4%	45.6%	46.5%	—	35.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	19.6%	42.0%	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	23.7%	32.2%	62.7%	—	34.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	79.0%	37.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	27.9%	33.0%	44.2%	—	39.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	40.1%	40.1%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	51.0%	34.9%	67.0%	—	36.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	55.3%	35.5%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	28.2%	42.4%	67.9%	8.5%	42.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	40.0%	23.1%	—	42.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	58%	72.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	57%	73.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	72.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	70.9°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	31%	68.6°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261022-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 72°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗