KSAN / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 13.9¢Risks 13.90u

AIFSNO 86.1¢Risks 86.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.10u · AIFS −86.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T10:53:51+00:00	1.6%	12.0%	5.3%	2.2%	2.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:43+00:00	1.6%	12.0%	5.3%	2.2%	2.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	1.6%	8.4%	5.3%	2.2%	2.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:41+00:00	1.6%	8.4%	5.3%	2.2%	2.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	2.5%	8.4%	5.5%	2.3%	2.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	2.5%	8.4%	5.5%	2.3%	2.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:45+00:00	2.5%	9.0%	5.5%	2.3%	2.6%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	2.5%	9.0%	5.5%	2.3%	2.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	2.5%	9.0%	5.8%	2.3%	2.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	2.5%	9.0%	5.8%	2.3%	2.6%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	2.5%	9.0%	5.8%	2.3%	2.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	2.5%	9.0%	5.8%	2.3%	2.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	2.2%	9.0%	5.8%	4.9%	20.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	2.2%	9.0%	5.8%	4.9%	20.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	2.2%	9.0%	5.8%	4.9%	20.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	2.2%	9.0%	5.8%	4.9%	20.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	2.2%	9.0%	3.8%	4.9%	20.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	2.2%	9.0%	3.8%	4.9%	20.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	2.2%	9.0%	3.8%	4.9%	20.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	1.2%	9.0%	3.8%	4.9%	20.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	1.2%	9.0%	3.8%	4.9%	20.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	1.2%	9.0%	3.8%	4.9%	20.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	1.2%	9.0%	3.8%	4.9%	20.2%
2026-10-16T04:25:15+00:00	1.2%	9.0%	3.8%	4.9%	20.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	2.7%	6.0%	3.6%	4.9%	25.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	2.7%	6.0%	3.3%	4.9%	25.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	2.7%	6.0%	3.3%	4.9%	25.5%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	2.7%	6.0%	3.3%	4.9%	25.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	2.3%	6.0%	3.3%	4.9%	25.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	2.3%	6.0%	3.3%	4.9%	25.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00	2.3%	6.0%	3.3%	4.9%	25.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	2.3%	6.0%	3.3%	4.9%	25.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	26%	76.8°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	71.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	70.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	72.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	70.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	69.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261022-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗