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KSAN / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
26%
EPS
6%
HRES
5%
WN2
3%
AIFS
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 13.9¢Risks 13.90u
VS
AIFSNO 86.1¢Risks 86.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +86.10u · AIFS −86.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.5% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.2% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.6% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.5% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.9% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.6% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-07 12:0010-14 00:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:001.5%————9.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0015.2%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0010.8%————18.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0011.8%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0011.8%————15.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:005.6%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0037.5%————16.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0026.1%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0015.6%————17.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0027.4%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:002.1%————17.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:002.3%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:006.1%————16.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:004.8%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:007.1%————18.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:007.5%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:003.4%————17.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:006.6%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:006.1%————10.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0012.2%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:003.9%————6.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:002.5%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:001.2%————7.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:001.6%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:002.1%————5.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:003.5%—3.2%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:003.2%—2.6%——4.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:001.8%—1.6%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.7%—0.9%——5.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.7%—3.5%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.3%0.0%2.7%——2.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.4%—2.8%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.3%1.1%2.5%0.0%—2.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.1%—1.1%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.1%1.4%2.5%3.3%—1.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.1%—1.7%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.2%5.4%1.0%1.1%—1.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.2%—1.4%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.5%0.9%0.7%4.9%—1.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.1%—0.6%——1.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.5%0.5%1.5%—1.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.2%0.4%——0.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.2%1.1%1.1%—0.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.7%——0.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.3%2.3%—0.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.1%5.9%0.4%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.2%0.5%—0.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.3%0.3%——0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.5%0.1%1.6%—0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.6%0.1%——0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.2%1.1%0.0%0.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.1%0.0%—0.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON26%76.8°F7.1°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble6%71.0°F6.7°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
IFS HRES5%70.6°F6.6°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 23%72.9°F4.7°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
AIFS Single2%70.7°F5.4°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
NWS forecast2%69.0°F5.9°F2026-10-16 14:00Pending
National Blend<1%69.0°F4.5°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261022-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗