KSAN / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

81%

59%

57%

55%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 68.1¢Risks 68.10u

EPSNO 31.9¢Risks 31.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +31.90u · EPS −31.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:39+00:00	75.1%	43.8%	76.0%	66.2%	75.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	75.1%	43.8%	74.8%	66.2%	75.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	75.1%	43.8%	74.8%	66.2%	75.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	75.1%	43.8%	74.8%	66.2%	75.9%
2026-10-17T07:45:20+00:00	74.7%	43.8%	74.8%	57.2%	77.6%
2026-10-17T08:31:11+00:00	74.7%	43.8%	74.8%	57.2%	77.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	74.7%	43.8%	74.8%	57.2%	77.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	74.7%	43.8%	74.8%	57.2%	77.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	74.7%	43.8%	74.8%	57.2%	77.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00	74.7%	51.9%	77.3%	57.2%	77.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	74.7%	51.9%	77.3%	57.2%	77.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	74.7%	51.9%	77.3%	57.2%	77.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	73.5%	51.9%	77.3%	57.1%	77.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	73.5%	51.8%	77.3%	57.2%	77.5%
2026-10-17T15:25:22+00:00	73.5%	55.8%	77.3%	57.2%	77.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	73.5%	55.8%	77.3%	57.2%	77.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	73.5%	55.8%	75.3%	57.2%	77.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	73.5%	55.8%	75.3%	57.2%	77.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	73.5%	55.8%	75.3%	57.2%	77.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	73.5%	55.8%	75.3%	57.2%	77.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	72.3%	55.8%	75.3%	57.2%	68.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	72.3%	55.8%	75.3%	57.2%	68.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	72.3%	55.8%	75.3%	57.2%	68.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	72.3%	55.8%	75.3%	57.2%	68.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	72.3%	55.9%	73.9%	57.2%	68.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	72.3%	55.9%	73.9%	57.2%	68.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	72.3%	55.9%	73.9%	57.2%	68.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	72.3%	55.9%	73.9%	57.2%	68.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	71.0%	55.9%	73.9%	57.2%	68.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	71.0%	55.9%	73.9%	57.2%	68.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	71.0%	55.9%	73.9%	57.2%	68.3%
2026-10-18T04:15:00+00:00	71.0%	55.9%	73.9%	57.2%	68.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	71.0%	55.9%	71.8%	57.2%	68.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	71.0%	55.9%	71.8%	57.2%	68.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	71.0%	55.9%	71.8%	57.2%	68.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	71.0%	55.9%	71.8%	57.2%	68.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:58+00:00	76.0%	55.9%	71.8%	67.3%	69.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	76.0%	55.9%	71.8%	67.3%	69.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	76.0%	55.9%	71.8%	67.3%	69.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	76.0%	55.9%	71.8%	67.3%	69.9%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	76.0%	65.0%	78.2%	67.3%	69.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	76.0%	65.0%	78.2%	67.3%	69.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00	76.0%	65.0%	78.2%	67.3%	69.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	76.0%	65.0%	78.2%	67.3%	69.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	75.4%	65.0%	78.2%	67.3%	69.9%
2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:00	75.4%	65.0%	78.2%	67.3%	69.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	75.4%	66.1%	78.2%	67.3%	69.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	75.4%	66.1%	78.2%	67.3%	69.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	75.4%	66.1%	75.2%	67.3%	69.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:39+00:00	75.4%	66.1%	75.2%	67.3%	69.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	75.4%	66.1%	75.2%	67.3%	69.9%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	69.3%	66.1%	75.2%	64.8%	80.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	69.3%	66.1%	75.2%	64.8%	80.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	69.3%	66.1%	75.2%	64.8%	80.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	69.3%	66.1%	75.2%	64.8%	80.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	69.3%	66.1%	75.2%	64.8%	80.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	69.3%	66.1%	75.2%	64.8%	80.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	69.3%	66.1%	75.2%	64.8%	80.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	69.3%	66.1%	75.2%	64.8%	80.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	72.8%	66.1%	75.2%	64.8%	80.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	72.8%	66.1%	75.2%	64.8%	80.2%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	72.8%	66.1%	75.2%	64.8%	80.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	72.8%	66.1%	75.2%	64.8%	80.2%
2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:00	72.8%	66.1%	75.2%	64.8%	80.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	72.8%	66.1%	78.9%	64.8%	80.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	72.8%	66.1%	78.9%	64.8%	80.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	72.8%	66.1%	78.9%	64.8%	80.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:57+00:00	76.4%	66.1%	78.9%	62.6%	65.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	76.4%	66.1%	78.9%	62.6%	65.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	76.4%	66.1%	78.9%	62.6%	65.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	76.4%	66.1%	78.9%	62.6%	65.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:00	76.4%	66.1%	78.9%	62.6%	65.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:00	76.4%	62.7%	79.7%	62.6%	65.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00	76.4%	62.7%	79.7%	62.6%	65.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	76.4%	62.7%	79.7%	62.6%	65.1%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	75.0%	62.7%	79.7%	62.6%	65.1%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	75.1%	62.9%	79.8%	62.6%	65.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:59+00:00	75.1%	62.7%	79.8%	62.6%	65.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	75.1%	62.7%	79.8%	62.6%	65.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	75.1%	62.7%	79.8%	62.6%	65.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	75.1%	62.7%	79.0%	62.6%	65.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	75.1%	62.7%	79.0%	62.6%	65.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	75.1%	62.7%	79.0%	62.6%	65.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	75.1%	62.7%	79.0%	63.3%	70.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	75.1%	62.7%	79.0%	63.3%	70.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	75.1%	62.7%	79.0%	63.3%	70.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	75.1%	62.7%	79.0%	63.3%	70.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	75.1%	62.7%	79.0%	63.3%	70.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	75.1%	62.7%	77.4%	63.3%	70.3%
2026-10-20T00:17:11+00:00	75.1%	62.7%	77.4%	63.3%	70.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	75.1%	62.7%	77.4%	63.3%	70.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	76.4%	62.7%	77.4%	63.3%	70.3%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	76.4%	62.7%	77.4%	63.3%	70.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	76.4%	62.7%	77.4%	63.3%	70.3%
2026-10-20T04:05:50+00:00	76.4%	62.7%	77.4%	63.3%	70.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	76.4%	62.7%	77.4%	63.3%	70.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00	76.4%	62.7%	74.1%	63.3%	70.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	76.4%	62.7%	74.1%	63.3%	70.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	76.4%	62.7%	74.1%	63.3%	70.3%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	81.4%	62.7%	74.1%	63.3%	57.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	81.4%	62.7%	74.1%	63.3%	57.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	81.4%	62.7%	74.1%	63.3%	57.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	81.4%	62.7%	74.1%	63.3%	57.0%
2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:00	81.4%	54.8%	80.6%	58.9%	57.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00	81.4%	54.8%	80.6%	58.9%	57.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	81.4%	54.8%	80.6%	58.9%	57.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	81.4%	54.8%	80.6%	58.9%	57.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	81.4%	54.8%	80.6%	58.9%	57.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	81%	74.3°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	73.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	71.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	57%	71.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	70.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261023-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗