KSAN / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

81%

59%

57%

55%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 68.1¢Risks 68.10u

EPSNO 31.9¢Risks 31.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +31.90u · EPS −31.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	33.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	39.0%	—	—	52.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	61.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	81.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	28.4%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	54.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	9.6%	33.0%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	49.3%	66.4%	32.3%	17.5%	—	50.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	62.3%	49.3%	44.9%	—	49.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	42.4%	47.7%	54.6%	52.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	50.8%	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	54.0%	61.8%	60.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	58.1%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	70.0%	54.2%	67.0%	—	49.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	35.0%	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	51.7%	73.1%	50.0%	—	48.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	40.2%	58.0%	52.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	58.2%	54.6%	68.6%	—	48.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	35.2%	67.4%	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	50.0%	51.0%	53.9%	30.4%	45.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	56.0%	—	—	44.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	81%	74.3°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	73.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	71.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	57%	71.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	70.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261023-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗