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KSAN / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
34%
AIFS
11%
HRES
10%
WN2
7%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 17.4¢Risks 17.45u
VS
EPSNO 82.5¢Risks 82.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +82.55u · EPS −82.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-16T19:37:18+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T19:37:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.9% · 2026-10-16T19:37:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.9% · 2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.9% · 2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.9% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.9% · 2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00IFS HRES: 7.9% · 2026-10-16T19:37:18+00:00IFS HRES: 7.9% · 2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00IFS HRES: 7.9% · 2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 7.9% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00IFS HRES: 9.9% · 2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00IFS HRES: 9.9% · 2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00IFS HRES: 9.9% · 2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00IFS HRES: 9.9% · 2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00IFS HRES: 9.9% · 2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00IFS HRES: 9.9% · 2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00IFS HRES: 9.9% · 2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00IFS HRES: 9.9% · 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00ICON: 34.4% · 2026-10-16T19:37:18+00:00ICON: 34.4% · 2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00ICON: 34.4% · 2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00ICON: 34.4% · 2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00ICON: 34.4% · 2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00ICON: 34.4% · 2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00ICON: 34.4% · 2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00ICON: 34.4% · 2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00ICON: 34.4% · 2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00ICON: 34.4% · 2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00ICON: 34.4% · 2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00ICON: 34.4% · 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:0010-16 19:3710-17 00:0910-17 03:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T19:37:18+00:0011.8%0.5%7.9%7.9%34.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:0011.8%0.5%7.9%7.9%34.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:0011.8%0.5%7.9%7.9%34.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:0011.8%0.5%7.9%7.9%34.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:0011.8%0.5%7.9%9.9%34.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:0011.8%0.5%7.3%9.9%34.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:0011.8%0.5%7.3%9.9%34.4%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:0011.8%0.5%7.3%9.9%34.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:0010.8%0.5%7.3%9.9%34.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:0010.8%0.5%7.3%9.9%34.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:0010.8%0.5%7.3%9.9%34.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:0010.8%0.5%7.3%9.9%34.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON34%77.5°F9.9°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
AIFS Single11%74.4°F5.8°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
IFS HRES10%73.2°F6.5°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 27%74.1°F5.1°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%69.8°F4.5°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
National Blend<1%70.0°F4.4°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261023-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 16 · 19:37 UTC

Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗