KSAN / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

11%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 17.4¢Risks 17.45u

EPSNO 82.5¢Risks 82.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +82.55u · EPS −82.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	2.9%	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	21.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	0.9%	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	0.1%	1.1%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	6.5%	0.8%	0.2%	—	2.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	4.4%	2.1%	1.6%	—	2.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.5%	2.3%	2.0%	—	1.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	1.7%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	1.8%	2.9%	2.6%	—	1.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	2.0%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	3.8%	1.4%	3.1%	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.3%	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.9%	3.6%	0.8%	—	0.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.1%	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.0%	0.8%	2.0%	—	0.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	1.5%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.4%	0.4%	0.5%	0.1%	0.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	34%	77.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	74.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	73.2°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	74.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	69.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261023-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 16 · 19:37 UTC

Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗