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KSAN / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
70%
AIFS
64%
WN2
61%
HRES
52%
EPS
30%
Consensus
53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 50.3¢Risks 50.35u
VS
EPSNO 49.7¢Risks 49.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +49.65u · EPS −49.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00AIFS Single: 65.5% · 2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00AIFS Single: 65.5% · 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00AIFS Single: 65.5% · 2026-10-17T15:25:22+00:00AIFS Single: 65.5% · 2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00AIFS Single: 65.5% · 2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00AIFS Single: 65.5% · 2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00AIFS Single: 65.5% · 2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00AIFS Single: 65.5% · 2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00AIFS Single: 60.3% · 2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.0% · 2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.0% · 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T15:25:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.4% · 2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.4% · 2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.4% · 2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.4% · 2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.4% · 2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 30.4% · 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-10-17T15:25:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.3% · 2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.5% · 2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.5% · 2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.5% · 2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.5% · 2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.5% · 2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.5% · 2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.5% · 2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.5% · 2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.8% · 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-17T15:25:22+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00IFS HRES: 52.5% · 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00ICON: 27.0% · 2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00ICON: 27.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00ICON: 27.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00ICON: 27.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00ICON: 27.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00ICON: 27.3% · 2026-10-17T15:25:22+00:00ICON: 27.3% · 2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00ICON: 27.3% · 2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00ICON: 27.3% · 2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00ICON: 27.3% · 2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00ICON: 27.3% · 2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00ICON: 70.3% · 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:0010-17 11:3210-17 19:5610-18 03:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:0064.3%24.0%62.3%45.1%27.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:0064.3%24.0%62.3%45.1%27.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:0064.3%24.0%62.3%45.1%27.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:0065.5%24.0%62.3%45.1%27.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:0065.5%24.0%62.3%45.1%27.3%
2026-10-17T15:25:22+00:0065.5%30.4%62.3%45.1%27.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:0065.5%30.4%62.3%45.1%27.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:0065.5%30.4%64.5%45.1%27.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:0065.5%30.4%64.5%45.1%27.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:0065.5%30.4%64.5%45.1%27.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:0065.5%30.4%64.5%45.1%27.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:0060.3%30.4%64.5%52.5%70.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:0060.3%30.4%64.5%52.5%70.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:0060.3%30.4%64.5%52.5%70.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:0060.3%30.4%64.5%52.5%70.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:0060.3%30.4%60.8%52.5%70.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:0060.3%30.4%60.8%52.5%70.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:0060.3%30.4%60.8%52.5%70.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:0060.3%30.4%60.8%52.5%70.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:0064.3%30.4%60.8%52.5%70.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:0064.3%30.4%60.8%52.5%70.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:0064.3%30.4%60.8%52.5%70.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON70%78.8°F9.9°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
AIFS Single64%75.6°F5.8°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 261%74.9°F5.1°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
National Blend54%74.0°F5.5°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS HRES52%73.9°F6.5°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble30%71.6°F3.7°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261024-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 74°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗