KSAN / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

64%

61%

52%

30%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 50.3¢Risks 50.35u

EPSNO 49.7¢Risks 49.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +49.65u · EPS −49.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	—	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	75.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	—	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	84.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	—	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	50.0%	—	—	43.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	12.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	3.5%	66.4%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	54.2%	67.0%	14.9%	—	39.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	84.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	60.8%	95.1%	60.8%	—	40.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.5%	48.5%	75.5%	80.0%	—	40.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	72.6%	94.3%	74.5%	—	42.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	87.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	73.5%	88.4%	94.7%	—	43.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	46.6%	94.4%	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	79.8%	77.2%	85.9%	56.1%	39.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	71.3%	—	—	35.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	70%	78.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	75.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	74.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	74.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	73.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	71.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261024-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 74°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗