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KSAN / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
67%
AIFS
44%
EPS
44%
WN2
41%
HRES
33%
Consensus
48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 50.2¢Risks 50.20u
VS
HRESNO 49.8¢Risks 49.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +49.80u · HRES −49.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 42.7% · 2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:00AIFS Single: 42.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00AIFS Single: 42.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00AIFS Single: 42.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:58+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00AIFS Single: 44.4% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00AIFS Single: 44.4% · 2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 38.2% · 2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.3% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.3% · 2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS HRES: 33.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:58+00:00IFS HRES: 33.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS HRES: 33.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS HRES: 33.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 33.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:00IFS HRES: 33.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:00IFS HRES: 33.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00IFS HRES: 33.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00IFS HRES: 33.3% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00IFS HRES: 33.3% · 2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00ICON: 52.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:58+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00ICON: 67.1% · 2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 09:4910-19 14:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:35+00:0042.7%20.8%38.2%44.0%52.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:0042.7%20.8%44.0%44.0%52.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:0042.7%20.8%44.0%44.0%52.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:0042.7%20.8%44.0%44.0%52.8%
2026-10-19T07:33:58+00:0048.4%20.8%44.0%33.3%67.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:0048.4%20.8%44.0%33.3%67.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:0048.4%20.8%44.0%33.3%67.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:0048.4%20.8%44.0%33.3%67.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:28+00:0048.4%20.8%44.0%33.3%67.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:0048.4%43.9%41.3%33.3%67.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:0048.4%43.9%41.3%33.3%67.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:0048.4%43.9%41.3%33.3%67.0%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:0044.4%43.9%41.3%33.3%67.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:0044.4%43.9%41.3%33.3%67.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON67%79.2°F6.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend55%77.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%77.0°F5.2°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
AIFS Single44%75.8°F4.9°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble44%75.7°F5.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 241%75.6°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES33%74.0°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗