KSAN / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

44%

44%

41%

33%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 50.2¢Risks 50.20u

HRESNO 49.8¢Risks 49.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +49.80u · HRES −49.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	—	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	70.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	31.2%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	1.0%	46.6%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	33.6%	46.5%	5.8%	—	21.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	39.2%	86.5%	39.2%	—	21.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	27.0%	54.6%	60.6%	—	21.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	50.0%	83.7%	52.4%	—	21.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	71.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	50.0%	71.4%	83.8%	—	21.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	23.3%	82.7%	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	57.0%	53.5%	66.2%	30.7%	17.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	45.5%	—	—	15.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	67%	79.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	77.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	75.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	75.7°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	41%	75.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	74.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗