KSAN / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

44%

27%

24%

23%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 42.5¢Risks 42.50u

HRESNO 57.5¢Risks 57.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +57.50u · HRES −57.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:59+00:00	36.5%	37.2%	32.2%	27.2%	61.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	36.5%	37.2%	32.2%	27.2%	61.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	36.5%	37.2%	32.2%	27.2%	61.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	36.5%	37.2%	31.3%	27.2%	61.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	36.5%	37.2%	31.3%	27.2%	61.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	36.5%	37.2%	31.3%	27.2%	61.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	37.3%	37.2%	31.3%	26.1%	61.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	37.3%	37.2%	31.3%	26.1%	61.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	37.3%	37.2%	31.3%	26.1%	61.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	37.3%	37.2%	31.3%	26.1%	61.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	37.3%	37.2%	31.3%	26.1%	61.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	37.3%	37.2%	26.3%	26.1%	61.0%
2026-10-20T00:17:11+00:00	37.3%	37.2%	26.3%	26.1%	61.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	37.3%	37.2%	26.3%	26.1%	61.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	35.0%	37.2%	26.3%	26.1%	61.0%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	35.0%	37.2%	26.3%	26.1%	61.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	35.0%	37.2%	26.3%	26.1%	61.0%
2026-10-20T04:05:50+00:00	35.0%	37.2%	26.3%	26.1%	61.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	35.0%	37.2%	26.3%	26.1%	61.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00	35.0%	37.2%	27.2%	26.1%	61.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	35.0%	37.2%	27.2%	26.1%	61.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	35.0%	37.2%	27.2%	26.1%	61.0%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	43.9%	37.2%	27.2%	26.1%	62.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	43.9%	37.2%	27.2%	26.1%	62.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	43.9%	37.2%	27.2%	26.1%	62.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	43.9%	37.2%	27.2%	26.1%	62.1%
2026-10-20T10:54:26+00:00	43.9%	24.5%	26.8%	23.0%	62.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00	43.9%	24.5%	26.8%	23.0%	62.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	43.9%	24.5%	26.8%	23.0%	62.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	43.9%	24.5%	26.8%	23.0%	62.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	43.9%	24.5%	26.8%	22.9%	62.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	62%	79.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	78.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	76.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	27%	75.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	74.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	73.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261024-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗