KSAN / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

44%

27%

24%

23%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 42.5¢Risks 42.50u

HRESNO 57.5¢Risks 57.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +57.50u · HRES −57.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	54.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	25.7%	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	0.6%	40.0%	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	27.5%	39.6%	4.0%	—	16.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	32.3%	82.0%	32.3%	—	16.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	21.1%	46.9%	53.0%	—	16.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	42.1%	78.2%	44.4%	—	15.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	63.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	41.7%	63.9%	78.1%	—	15.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	17.3%	76.7%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	48.2%	44.8%	57.8%	23.4%	12.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	36.8%	—	—	10.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	62%	79.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	78.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	76.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	27%	75.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	74.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	73.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261024-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗