KSAN / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

20%

18%

14%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 39.4¢Risks 39.45u

WN2NO 60.6¢Risks 60.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +60.55u · WN2 −60.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	9.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	12.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	13.7%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	17.2%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	54.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	0.2%	76.2%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	60.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	11.9%	39.6%	3.0%	—	5.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	56.6%	78.0%	40.6%	—	6.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	32.3%	71.7%	41.7%	—	6.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	53.2%	40.5%	57.1%	10.8%	6.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	52.4%	—	—	4.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	70%	84.6°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	80.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	77.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	76.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	76.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	76.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261025-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: San Diego runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗