KSAN / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

67%

56%

51%

50%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 64.8¢Risks 64.80u

WN2NO 35.2¢Risks 35.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +35.20u · WN2 −35.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T11:21:22+00:00	54.8%	51.4%	43.8%	58.6%	24.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:41+00:00	54.8%	51.4%	43.8%	58.6%	24.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	54.8%	51.4%	43.8%	58.6%	24.5%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	69.9%	51.4%	43.8%	58.6%	24.5%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	69.9%	51.4%	43.8%	58.6%	24.6%
2026-10-19T15:14:00+00:00	69.9%	51.4%	43.8%	58.6%	24.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	69.9%	51.4%	43.8%	58.6%	24.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	69.9%	51.4%	43.8%	58.6%	24.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	69.9%	51.4%	46.9%	58.6%	24.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	69.9%	51.4%	46.9%	58.6%	24.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	69.9%	51.4%	46.9%	58.6%	24.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	59.0%	51.4%	46.9%	66.8%	79.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	59.0%	51.4%	46.9%	66.8%	79.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	59.0%	51.4%	46.9%	66.8%	79.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	59.0%	51.4%	46.9%	66.8%	79.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	59.0%	51.4%	46.9%	66.8%	79.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	59.0%	51.4%	50.0%	66.8%	79.6%
2026-10-20T00:17:11+00:00	59.0%	51.4%	50.0%	66.8%	79.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	59.0%	51.4%	50.0%	66.8%	79.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	56.2%	51.4%	50.0%	66.8%	79.6%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	56.2%	51.4%	50.0%	66.8%	79.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	56.2%	51.4%	50.0%	66.8%	79.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	80%	84.8°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	79.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	77.4°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	77.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	76.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	76.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261026-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗