KSAN / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

67%

56%

51%

50%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 64.8¢Risks 64.80u

WN2NO 35.2¢Risks 35.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +35.20u · WN2 −35.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	25.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	26.2%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	79.8%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	34.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	20.7%	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	2.6%	90.7%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	95.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	74.3%	83.4%	20.9%	—	28.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	78.5%	62.3%	86.9%	36.4%	35.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	94.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	80%	84.8°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	79.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	77.4°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	77.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	76.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	76.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261026-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗