KSAN / Fri Nov 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Nov 13 · 10:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

68%

58%

42%

11%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.2¢Risks 54.25u

ICONNO 45.8¢Risks 45.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.75u · ICON −45.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-11-13T10:16:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-11-11T16:30:11+00:00	60.0%	97.9%	68.4%	47.1%	53.4%
2026-11-11T17:15:37+00:00	60.0%	97.9%	69.7%	47.1%	53.4%
2026-11-11T18:00:53+00:00	60.0%	97.9%	69.7%	47.1%	53.4%
2026-11-11T18:46:18+00:00	60.0%	97.9%	69.7%	47.1%	53.4%
2026-11-11T19:31:35+00:00	61.9%	97.9%	69.7%	47.1%	72.5%
2026-11-11T20:16:49+00:00	61.9%	97.9%	69.7%	47.1%	72.5%
2026-11-11T21:02:03+00:00	61.9%	97.9%	69.7%	47.1%	72.5%
2026-11-11T21:47:13+00:00	61.9%	97.9%	69.7%	47.1%	72.5%
2026-11-11T22:32:22+00:00	61.9%	97.9%	69.7%	48.1%	72.5%
2026-11-11T23:17:31+00:00	61.9%	97.9%	71.9%	48.1%	72.5%
2026-11-12T00:02:46+00:00	61.9%	97.9%	71.9%	48.1%	72.5%
2026-11-12T00:48:14+00:00	61.9%	97.9%	71.9%	48.1%	72.5%
2026-11-12T01:33:23+00:00	61.0%	97.9%	71.9%	48.1%	72.5%
2026-11-12T02:18:35+00:00	61.0%	97.9%	71.9%	48.1%	72.5%
2026-11-12T03:03:48+00:00	61.0%	97.9%	71.9%	48.1%	72.5%
2026-11-12T03:49:13+00:00	61.0%	97.9%	71.9%	48.1%	72.5%
2026-11-12T04:36:01+00:00	61.0%	97.9%	71.9%	48.1%	72.5%
2026-11-12T05:21:18+00:00	61.0%	97.9%	69.7%	48.1%	72.5%
2026-11-12T06:06:26+00:00	61.0%	97.9%	69.7%	48.1%	72.5%
2026-11-12T06:51:33+00:00	61.0%	97.9%	69.7%	48.1%	72.5%
2026-11-12T07:36:53+00:00	59.3%	97.9%	69.7%	48.1%	6.9%
2026-11-12T08:22:02+00:00	59.3%	97.9%	69.7%	48.1%	6.9%
2026-11-12T09:07:16+00:00	59.3%	97.9%	69.7%	48.1%	6.9%
2026-11-12T09:52:25+00:00	59.3%	97.9%	69.7%	48.1%	6.9%
2026-11-12T10:40:27+00:00	59.3%	97.9%	69.7%	43.6%	6.9%
2026-11-12T11:26:26+00:00	59.3%	97.0%	69.8%	43.6%	6.9%
2026-11-12T12:11:46+00:00	59.3%	97.0%	69.8%	43.6%	6.9%
2026-11-12T12:56:54+00:00	59.3%	97.0%	69.8%	43.6%	6.9%
2026-11-12T13:42:04+00:00	56.3%	97.0%	69.8%	43.6%	6.9%
2026-11-12T14:34:42+00:00	56.3%	97.0%	69.8%	43.6%	6.8%
2026-11-12T15:19:56+00:00	56.3%	97.0%	69.8%	43.6%	6.8%
2026-11-12T16:06:46+00:00	56.3%	97.2%	69.8%	43.6%	6.8%
2026-11-12T16:52:32+00:00	56.3%	97.2%	69.8%	43.4%	6.8%
2026-11-12T17:37:53+00:00	56.3%	97.2%	69.8%	43.4%	6.8%
2026-11-12T18:23:15+00:00	56.3%	97.2%	69.8%	43.4%	6.8%
2026-11-12T19:08:26+00:00	56.3%	97.2%	69.8%	43.4%	6.8%
2026-11-12T19:53:49+00:00	59.3%	97.2%	69.8%	43.4%	7.6%
2026-11-12T20:39:09+00:00	59.3%	97.2%	69.8%	43.4%	7.6%
2026-11-12T21:24:42+00:00	59.3%	97.2%	69.8%	43.4%	7.6%
2026-11-12T22:10:25+00:00	59.3%	97.2%	69.8%	43.4%	7.6%
2026-11-12T22:55:43+00:00	59.3%	97.2%	69.8%	42.3%	7.6%
2026-11-12T23:40:57+00:00	59.3%	97.2%	69.8%	42.5%	7.6%
2026-11-13T00:26:11+00:00	59.3%	97.2%	69.8%	42.5%	7.6%
2026-11-13T01:11:29+00:00	59.3%	97.2%	69.8%	42.5%	7.6%
2026-11-13T01:56:55+00:00	55.2%	97.2%	69.8%	42.5%	7.6%
2026-11-13T02:42:23+00:00	55.2%	97.2%	69.8%	42.5%	7.6%
2026-11-13T03:27:35+00:00	55.2%	97.2%	69.8%	42.5%	7.6%
2026-11-13T04:12:46+00:00	55.2%	97.2%	69.8%	42.5%	7.6%
2026-11-13T05:00:03+00:00	55.2%	97.2%	68.5%	42.5%	7.6%
2026-11-13T05:45:24+00:00	55.2%	97.2%	68.5%	42.5%	7.6%
2026-11-13T06:30:33+00:00	55.2%	97.2%	68.5%	42.5%	7.6%
2026-11-13T07:15:43+00:00	55.2%	97.2%	68.5%	42.5%	7.6%
2026-11-13T08:00:53+00:00	57.8%	97.2%	68.5%	42.5%	11.3%
2026-11-13T08:46:01+00:00	57.8%	97.2%	68.5%	42.5%	11.3%
2026-11-13T09:31:12+00:00	57.8%	97.2%	68.5%	42.5%	11.3%
2026-11-13T10:16:20+00:00	57.8%	97.2%	68.5%	42.5%	11.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	77.6°F	3.7°F	2026-11-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	71.9°F	2.9°F	2026-11-12 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-11-13 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	71.1°F	3.0°F	2026-11-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	69.8°F	3.7°F	2026-11-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	40%	70.0°F	1.9°F	2026-11-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	11%	66.3°F	3.5°F	2026-11-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261113-TMAX-GE71
Opened Nov 11 · 16:30 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 71°F · Fri Nov 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗