KSAN / Fri Nov 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Diego, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Nov 13 · 10:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

68%

58%

42%

11%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.2¢Risks 54.25u

ICONNO 45.8¢Risks 45.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.75u · ICON −45.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-11-13T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-29T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-29T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-30T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-30T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-30T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-30T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-31T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-31T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-31T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-31T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-01T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-11-01T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-01T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-11-01T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-02T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-11-02T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-02T12:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-11-02T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-03T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-11-03T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-03T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-11-03T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-04T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-11-04T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-04T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-11-04T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-05T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	74.1%	—	—	61.2%
2026-11-05T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-11-05T12:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	81.5%	—	—	61.6%
2026-11-05T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	75.2%	—	—	—
2026-11-06T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	2.3%	34.2%	—	35.5%	63.9%
2026-11-06T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	85.4%	—	—	—
2026-11-06T12:00:00+00:00	30.5%	45.1%	64.4%	49.3%	—	63.8%
2026-11-06T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	84.3%	—	—	—
2026-11-07T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	96.8%	75.7%	56.6%	—	68.3%
2026-11-07T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	93.1%	—	—	—
2026-11-07T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	86.7%	96.1%	88.6%	—	67.7%
2026-11-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	98.1%	—	—	64.5%
2026-11-08T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	96.4%	95.2%	85.1%	—	72.6%
2026-11-08T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	94.5%	—	—	70.3%
2026-11-08T12:00:00+00:00	53.3%	99.4%	95.9%	83.8%	—	75.5%
2026-11-08T18:00:00+00:00	44.9%	81.6%	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-11-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	91.7%	69.3%	84.4%	—	63.7%
2026-11-09T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	95.0%	69.8%	—	—	65.8%
2026-11-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	91.4%	71.0%	62.7%	—	64.4%
2026-11-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	70.8%	64.8%	—	—	59.4%
2026-11-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	74.5%	59.6%	37.6%	—	64.3%
2026-11-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	89.0%	61.8%	—	—	55.0%
2026-11-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	41.8%	42.8%	47.9%	—	50.0%
2026-11-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	54.2%	45.8%	—	—	55.3%
2026-11-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	54.4%	45.6%	37.1%	—	45.6%
2026-11-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	18.3%	45.5%	9.7%	—	47.8%
2026-11-11T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	74.0%	51.2%	34.1%	—	44.2%
2026-11-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	16.7%	64.1%	38.1%	—	45.2%
2026-11-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	10.0%	50.0%	52.5%	24.6%	40.1%
2026-11-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	18.2%	37.3%	41.0%	—	36.1%
2026-11-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	9.5%	43.3%	30.7%	6.1%	36.8%
2026-11-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	16.4%	20.1%	45.8%	—	35.0%
2026-11-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	22.2%	19.1%	47.1%	13.0%	29.3%
2026-11-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	14.4%	20.2%	39.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	97%	77.6°F	3.7°F	2026-11-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	71.9°F	2.9°F	2026-11-12 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-11-13 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	71.1°F	3.0°F	2026-11-13 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	69.8°F	3.7°F	2026-11-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	40%	70.0°F	1.9°F	2026-11-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	11%	66.3°F	3.5°F	2026-11-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSAN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAN-20261113-TMAX-GE71
Opened Nov 11 · 16:30 UTC

Original listing: San Diego high ≥ 71°F · Fri Nov 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗