KSAT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

61%

51%

44%

37%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.7¢Risks 59.75u

ICONNO 40.3¢Risks 40.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.25u · ICON −40.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:32+00:00	42.6%	96.1%	26.7%	59.7%	36.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:11+00:00	42.6%	96.1%	26.7%	59.7%	36.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	42.6%	96.1%	30.7%	59.7%	36.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	42.6%	96.1%	30.7%	59.7%	36.2%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	42.6%	96.1%	30.7%	59.7%	36.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	42.6%	96.1%	30.7%	59.7%	36.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	45.4%	96.1%	30.7%	58.0%	46.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	45.4%	96.1%	30.7%	58.0%	46.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	45.4%	96.1%	30.7%	58.0%	46.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	45.4%	96.1%	30.7%	58.0%	46.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	45.4%	96.1%	30.7%	58.0%	46.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	45.4%	96.1%	30.7%	58.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	45.4%	96.1%	30.7%	58.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	42.6%	96.1%	30.7%	58.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	42.6%	96.1%	30.7%	58.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	42.6%	96.1%	30.7%	58.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	42.6%	96.1%	30.7%	58.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T04:24:52+00:00	42.6%	96.1%	30.7%	58.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	42.6%	96.1%	32.8%	58.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	42.6%	96.1%	32.8%	58.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	42.6%	96.1%	32.8%	58.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	43.2%	96.1%	32.8%	58.0%	38.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00	43.2%	96.1%	32.8%	58.0%	38.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	43.2%	96.1%	32.8%	58.0%	38.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	43.2%	96.1%	32.8%	58.0%	38.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	43.2%	96.1%	32.8%	58.0%	38.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	43.2%	95.4%	21.9%	58.0%	38.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	43.2%	95.4%	21.9%	58.0%	38.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	43.2%	95.4%	21.9%	58.0%	38.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:50+00:00	46.1%	95.4%	21.9%	63.4%	38.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00	46.1%	94.9%	21.9%	63.4%	38.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:42+00:00	46.1%	94.5%	21.9%	63.4%	38.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	46.1%	94.5%	21.9%	63.4%	38.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	46.1%	94.5%	21.9%	63.4%	38.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	46.1%	94.5%	28.1%	63.4%	38.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	46.1%	94.5%	28.1%	63.4%	38.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	46.1%	94.5%	28.1%	63.4%	38.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	49.0%	94.5%	28.1%	63.4%	38.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	49.0%	94.5%	28.1%	63.4%	38.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	49.0%	94.5%	28.1%	63.4%	38.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	49.0%	94.5%	28.1%	63.4%	38.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	49.0%	94.5%	28.1%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	49.0%	94.5%	30.3%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	49.0%	94.5%	30.3%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	49.0%	94.5%	30.3%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	51.0%	94.5%	30.3%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	51.0%	94.5%	30.3%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	51.0%	94.5%	30.3%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	51.0%	94.5%	30.3%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-17T04:42:16+00:00	51.0%	94.5%	30.3%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	51.0%	94.5%	36.1%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	51.0%	94.5%	36.1%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	51.0%	94.5%	36.1%	61.5%	38.9%
2026-10-17T07:44:55+00:00	52.0%	94.5%	36.1%	61.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	52.0%	94.5%	36.1%	61.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	52.0%	94.5%	36.1%	61.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	52.0%	94.5%	36.1%	61.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	52.0%	94.5%	36.1%	61.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	52.0%	93.2%	31.5%	61.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	52.0%	93.2%	31.5%	61.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	52.0%	93.2%	31.5%	61.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	50.0%	93.2%	31.5%	61.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	50.0%	92.8%	31.5%	61.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T15:25:08+00:00	50.0%	82.9%	31.5%	61.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	50.0%	82.9%	31.5%	61.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	50.0%	82.9%	28.0%	61.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	50.0%	82.9%	28.0%	61.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	50.0%	82.9%	28.0%	61.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	50.0%	82.9%	28.0%	61.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	49.0%	82.9%	28.0%	43.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	49.0%	82.9%	28.0%	43.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	49.0%	82.9%	28.0%	43.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	49.0%	82.9%	28.0%	43.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	49.0%	82.9%	30.3%	43.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	49.0%	82.8%	30.3%	43.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	49.0%	82.8%	30.3%	43.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	49.0%	82.8%	30.3%	43.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	51.0%	82.8%	30.3%	43.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	51.0%	82.8%	30.3%	43.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	51.0%	82.8%	30.3%	43.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T04:14:29+00:00	51.0%	82.8%	30.3%	43.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	51.0%	82.8%	60.8%	43.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	51.0%	82.8%	60.8%	43.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	51.0%	82.8%	60.8%	43.6%	36.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	51.0%	82.8%	60.8%	43.6%	36.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	83%	75.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0296
WeatherNext 2	61%	73.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1537
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
National Blend	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1697
AIFS Single	51%	72.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2401
IFS HRES	44%	71.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3181
ICON	37%	71.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.4007

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗