KSAT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

61%

51%

44%

37%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.7¢Risks 59.75u

ICONNO 40.3¢Risks 40.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.25u · ICON −40.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	95.8%	—	—	—	—	65.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	97.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	11.0%	—	—	84.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	6.5%	—	—	77.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	8.8%	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.6%	34.3%	43.0%	40.9%	—	73.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	95.4%	88.7%	71.5%	—	89.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	98.0%	88.2%	66.3%	—	83.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	88.5%	93.3%	59.5%	—	75.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	83.8%	85.7%	44.2%	—	63.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	32.6%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	47.4%	64.6%	49.1%	—	49.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	59.8%	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	54.6%	50.9%	40.0%	—	39.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	47.2%	57.5%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	30.4%	53.9%	43.2%	—	43.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	42.0%	66.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	38.8%	60.2%	36.9%	—	41.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	37.5%	54.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	42.4%	60.8%	31.1%	—	45.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.9%	44.4%	53.4%	0.0%	—	42.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	41.9%	57.0%	30.0%	—	47.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	41.6%	57.2%	35.9%	—	42.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	51.2%	57.4%	45.0%	15.1%	42.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	53.9%	39.8%	43.6%	—	34.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	51.3%	46.0%	42.0%	16.5%	26.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	56.9%	41.7%	41.7%	—	26.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	62.8%	29.3%	40.0%	18.2%	35.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	53.0%	38.1%	32.5%	—	17.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	37.6%	42.1%	39.1%	3.7%	19.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	46.7%	45.1%	43.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	83%	75.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0296
WeatherNext 2	61%	73.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1537
NWS forecast	59%	73.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
National Blend	59%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1697
AIFS Single	51%	72.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2401
IFS HRES	44%	71.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3181
ICON	37%	71.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.4007

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗