KSAT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

36%

22%

14%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 29.9¢Risks 29.95u

WN2NO 70.0¢Risks 70.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +70.05u · WN2 −70.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:49+00:00	35.4%	67.8%	31.4%	90.2%	42.8%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	35.4%	67.8%	31.4%	90.2%	42.8%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	35.4%	67.8%	34.3%	90.2%	42.8%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	35.4%	67.8%	34.3%	90.2%	42.8%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	35.4%	67.8%	34.3%	90.2%	42.8%
2026-10-12T07:48:51+00:00	29.2%	67.8%	34.3%	92.8%	89.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	29.2%	67.8%	34.3%	92.8%	89.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	29.2%	67.8%	34.3%	92.8%	89.3%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	29.2%	67.8%	34.3%	92.8%	89.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	29.2%	67.8%	34.3%	92.8%	89.3%
2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00	29.2%	67.8%	36.3%	92.8%	89.3%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	29.2%	75.3%	36.3%	92.8%	89.3%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	29.2%	75.3%	36.3%	92.8%	89.3%
2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00	25.5%	75.3%	36.3%	92.8%	89.3%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	25.5%	75.1%	36.3%	92.8%	89.2%
2026-10-12T15:27:39+00:00	25.5%	75.1%	36.3%	92.8%	89.2%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	25.5%	75.8%	36.3%	92.8%	89.2%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	25.5%	75.8%	27.7%	92.8%	89.2%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	25.5%	75.8%	27.7%	92.8%	89.2%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	25.5%	75.8%	27.7%	92.8%	89.2%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	25.5%	75.8%	27.7%	92.8%	89.2%
2026-10-12T19:58:35+00:00	22.6%	75.8%	27.7%	57.9%	92.7%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	22.6%	75.8%	27.7%	57.9%	92.7%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	22.6%	75.8%	27.7%	57.9%	92.7%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	22.6%	75.8%	27.7%	57.9%	92.7%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	22.6%	75.8%	24.2%	57.9%	92.7%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	22.6%	75.8%	24.2%	57.9%	92.7%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	22.6%	75.8%	24.2%	57.9%	92.7%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	22.6%	75.8%	24.2%	57.9%	92.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	19.8%	75.8%	24.2%	57.9%	92.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	19.8%	75.8%	24.2%	57.9%	92.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	19.8%	75.8%	24.2%	57.9%	92.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:40+00:00	10.8%	53.6%	5.3%	32.3%	29.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	10.8%	53.6%	5.3%	32.3%	29.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	10.8%	53.6%	5.3%	32.3%	29.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	10.8%	53.6%	5.1%	32.3%	29.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	10.8%	53.6%	5.1%	32.3%	29.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	10.8%	53.6%	5.1%	32.3%	29.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00	13.9%	53.6%	5.1%	22.4%	35.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	13.9%	53.6%	5.1%	22.4%	35.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	13.9%	53.6%	5.1%	22.4%	35.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	13.9%	53.6%	5.1%	22.4%	35.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	13.9%	53.6%	5.1%	22.4%	35.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	13.9%	53.6%	6.3%	22.4%	35.5%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	13.9%	53.6%	6.3%	22.4%	35.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	13.9%	53.6%	6.3%	22.4%	35.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	13.9%	53.6%	6.3%	22.4%	35.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	13.9%	53.6%	6.3%	22.4%	35.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	13.9%	53.6%	6.3%	22.4%	35.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2970
IFS Ensemble	54%	76.7°F	2.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.2873
National Blend	45%	76.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1989
ICON	36%	74.7°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1260
IFS HRES	22%	72.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0502
AIFS Single	14%	71.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0193
WeatherNext 2	6%	70.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0040

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261018-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗