KSAT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

36%

22%

14%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 29.9¢Risks 29.95u

WN2NO 70.0¢Risks 70.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +70.05u · WN2 −70.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	86.2%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	72.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	3.2%	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	1.5%	—	—	53.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	2.1%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	13.4%	18.9%	17.5%	—	46.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	83.0%	68.3%	43.4%	—	69.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	56.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	90.0%	66.3%	36.5%	—	58.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	65.5%	75.8%	28.8%	—	46.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	55.8%	59.1%	16.2%	—	31.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	9.5%	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	17.2%	30.7%	18.4%	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	25.7%	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	20.9%	18.4%	11.9%	—	11.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	15.4%	22.4%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	6.8%	19.0%	12.6%	—	12.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	11.4%	28.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	9.4%	21.9%	8.6%	—	10.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	8.3%	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	9.9%	20.6%	5.6%	—	11.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	10.2%	14.8%	0.0%	—	9.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	8.5%	16.0%	4.5%	—	11.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	7.8%	15.2%	5.8%	—	8.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	11.2%	14.4%	8.5%	1.1%	7.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	11.5%	6.0%	7.2%	—	4.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	9.5%	7.4%	6.1%	1.0%	2.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	11.1%	5.4%	5.4%	—	2.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	13.0%	2.3%	4.4%	0.9%	3.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	7.5%	3.4%	2.4%	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.9%	3.7%	3.1%	0.0%	0.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.1%	3.7%	3.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2970
IFS Ensemble	54%	76.7°F	2.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.2873
National Blend	45%	76.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1989
ICON	36%	74.7°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1260
IFS HRES	22%	72.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0502
AIFS Single	14%	71.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0193
WeatherNext 2	6%	70.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0040

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261018-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗