KSAT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≤ 72°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

56%

49%

39%

17%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 40.2¢Risks 40.25u

EPSNO 59.8¢Risks 59.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +59.75u · EPS −59.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:34:12+00:00	65.2%	2.1%	50.0%	36.7%	39.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:00	65.2%	3.7%	70.5%	36.7%	39.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	65.2%	3.7%	70.5%	36.7%	39.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	65.2%	3.7%	70.5%	36.7%	39.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	64.4%	3.7%	70.5%	36.7%	39.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	64.4%	3.7%	70.5%	36.7%	38.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:40+00:00	64.4%	2.8%	70.5%	36.7%	38.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	64.4%	2.8%	70.5%	36.7%	38.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	64.4%	2.8%	70.5%	36.7%	38.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	64.4%	2.8%	71.4%	36.7%	38.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	64.4%	2.8%	71.4%	36.7%	38.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	64.4%	2.8%	71.4%	36.7%	38.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00	58.6%	2.8%	71.4%	48.4%	32.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	58.6%	2.8%	71.4%	48.4%	32.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	58.6%	2.8%	71.4%	48.4%	32.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	58.6%	2.8%	71.4%	48.4%	32.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	58.6%	2.8%	71.4%	48.4%	32.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	58.6%	2.8%	67.6%	48.4%	32.4%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	58.6%	2.8%	67.6%	48.4%	32.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	58.6%	2.8%	67.6%	48.4%	32.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	58.6%	2.8%	67.6%	48.4%	32.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	58.6%	2.8%	67.6%	48.4%	32.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	58.6%	2.8%	67.6%	48.4%	32.4%
2026-10-15T04:02:30+00:00	58.6%	2.8%	67.6%	48.4%	32.4%
2026-10-15T04:48:03+00:00	58.6%	2.8%	67.6%	48.4%	32.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	58.6%	2.8%	63.7%	48.4%	32.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	58.6%	2.8%	63.7%	48.4%	32.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	58.6%	2.8%	63.7%	48.4%	32.4%
2026-10-15T07:50:13+00:00	63.7%	2.8%	63.7%	40.3%	63.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	63.7%	2.8%	63.7%	40.3%	63.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	63.7%	2.8%	63.7%	40.3%	63.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	63.7%	2.8%	63.7%	40.3%	63.8%
2026-10-15T10:53:41+00:00	63.7%	2.8%	73.3%	40.3%	63.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	63.7%	2.8%	73.3%	40.3%	63.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	63.7%	4.9%	73.3%	40.3%	63.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	63.7%	4.9%	73.3%	40.3%	63.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	57.4%	4.9%	73.3%	40.3%	63.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	57.4%	4.9%	73.3%	40.3%	63.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:33+00:00	57.4%	3.9%	73.3%	40.3%	63.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:11+00:00	57.4%	3.9%	73.3%	40.3%	63.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	57.4%	3.9%	69.3%	40.3%	63.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	57.4%	3.9%	69.3%	40.3%	63.8%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	57.4%	3.9%	69.3%	40.3%	63.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	57.4%	3.9%	69.3%	40.3%	63.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	54.6%	3.9%	69.3%	42.0%	54.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	54.6%	3.9%	69.3%	42.0%	54.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	54.6%	3.9%	69.3%	42.0%	54.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	54.6%	3.9%	69.3%	42.0%	54.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	54.6%	3.9%	69.3%	42.0%	54.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	54.6%	3.9%	69.3%	42.0%	54.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	54.6%	3.9%	69.3%	42.0%	54.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	57.4%	3.9%	69.3%	42.0%	54.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	57.4%	3.9%	69.3%	42.0%	54.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	57.4%	3.9%	69.3%	42.0%	54.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	57.4%	3.9%	69.3%	42.0%	54.0%
2026-10-16T04:24:52+00:00	57.4%	3.9%	69.3%	42.0%	54.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	57.4%	3.9%	67.2%	42.0%	54.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	57.4%	3.9%	67.2%	42.0%	54.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	57.4%	3.9%	67.2%	42.0%	54.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	56.8%	3.9%	67.2%	42.0%	61.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00	56.8%	3.9%	67.2%	42.0%	61.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	56.8%	3.9%	67.2%	42.0%	61.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	56.8%	3.9%	67.2%	42.0%	61.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	56.8%	3.9%	67.2%	42.0%	61.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	56.8%	4.6%	78.1%	42.0%	61.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	56.8%	4.6%	78.1%	42.0%	61.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	56.8%	4.6%	78.1%	42.0%	61.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:50+00:00	53.9%	4.6%	78.1%	36.6%	61.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00	53.9%	5.1%	78.1%	36.6%	61.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:42+00:00	53.9%	5.5%	78.1%	36.6%	61.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	53.9%	5.5%	78.1%	36.6%	61.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	53.9%	5.5%	78.1%	36.6%	61.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	53.9%	5.5%	71.9%	36.6%	61.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	53.9%	5.5%	71.9%	36.6%	61.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	53.9%	5.5%	71.9%	36.6%	61.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	51.0%	5.5%	71.9%	36.6%	61.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	51.0%	5.5%	71.9%	36.6%	61.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	51.0%	5.5%	71.9%	36.6%	61.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	51.0%	5.5%	71.9%	36.6%	61.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	51.0%	5.5%	71.9%	38.5%	61.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	51.0%	5.5%	69.7%	38.5%	61.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	51.0%	5.5%	69.7%	38.5%	61.1%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	51.0%	5.5%	69.7%	38.5%	61.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	49.0%	5.5%	69.7%	38.5%	61.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	49.0%	5.5%	69.7%	38.5%	61.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	49.0%	5.5%	69.7%	38.5%	61.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	49.0%	5.5%	69.7%	38.5%	61.1%
2026-10-17T04:42:16+00:00	49.0%	5.5%	69.7%	38.5%	61.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	49.0%	5.5%	63.9%	38.5%	61.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	49.0%	5.5%	63.9%	38.5%	61.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	49.0%	5.5%	63.9%	38.5%	61.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:55+00:00	48.0%	5.5%	63.9%	38.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	48.0%	5.5%	63.9%	38.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	48.0%	5.5%	63.9%	38.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	48.0%	5.5%	63.9%	38.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	48.0%	5.5%	63.9%	38.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	48.0%	6.8%	68.5%	38.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	48.0%	6.8%	68.5%	38.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	48.0%	6.8%	68.5%	38.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	50.0%	6.8%	68.5%	38.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	50.0%	7.2%	68.5%	38.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T15:25:08+00:00	50.0%	17.1%	68.5%	38.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	50.0%	17.1%	68.5%	38.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	50.0%	17.1%	72.0%	38.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	50.0%	17.1%	72.0%	38.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	50.0%	17.1%	72.0%	38.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	50.0%	17.1%	72.0%	38.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	51.0%	17.1%	72.0%	56.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	51.0%	17.1%	72.0%	56.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	51.0%	17.1%	72.0%	56.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	51.0%	17.1%	72.0%	56.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	51.0%	17.1%	69.7%	56.4%	63.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	51.0%	17.2%	69.7%	56.4%	63.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	51.0%	17.2%	69.7%	56.4%	63.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	51.0%	17.2%	69.7%	56.4%	63.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	49.0%	17.2%	69.7%	56.4%	63.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	49.0%	17.2%	69.7%	56.4%	63.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	49.0%	17.2%	69.7%	56.4%	63.3%
2026-10-18T04:14:29+00:00	49.0%	17.2%	69.7%	56.4%	63.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	49.0%	17.2%	39.2%	56.4%	63.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	49.0%	17.2%	39.2%	56.4%	63.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	49.0%	17.2%	39.2%	56.4%	63.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	49.0%	17.2%	39.2%	56.4%	63.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	63%	71.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.4007
IFS HRES	56%	71.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3181
AIFS Single	49%	72.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2401
National Blend	41%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1697
NWS forecast	41%	73.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
WeatherNext 2	39%	73.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1537
IFS Ensemble	17%	75.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0296

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 72°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261018-TMAX-LE72
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 72°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗