KSAT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≤ 72°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

56%

49%

39%

17%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 40.2¢Risks 40.25u

EPSNO 59.8¢Risks 59.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +59.75u · EPS −59.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	34.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	95.8%	—	—	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	99.6%	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	84.7%	—	89.0%	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	93.5%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	93.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	91.2%	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	76.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.4%	65.7%	57.0%	59.1%	—	26.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	4.6%	11.3%	28.5%	—	10.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	2.0%	11.8%	33.7%	—	16.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	11.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	11.5%	6.7%	40.5%	—	24.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	78.2%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	79.9%	16.2%	14.3%	55.8%	—	36.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	85.8%	67.4%	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	89.1%	52.6%	35.4%	50.9%	—	50.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	40.2%	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	86.1%	45.4%	49.1%	60.0%	—	60.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	52.8%	42.5%	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	69.6%	46.1%	56.8%	—	56.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	87.1%	58.0%	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	86.1%	61.2%	39.8%	63.1%	—	58.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	62.5%	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	88.1%	57.6%	39.2%	68.9%	—	54.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	87.1%	55.6%	46.6%	100.0%	—	57.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	58.1%	43.0%	70.0%	—	52.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	58.4%	42.8%	64.1%	—	57.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	48.8%	42.6%	55.0%	84.9%	57.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	46.1%	60.2%	56.4%	—	65.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	48.7%	54.0%	58.0%	83.5%	73.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	43.1%	58.3%	58.3%	—	73.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	87.0%	37.2%	70.7%	60.1%	81.8%	64.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	47.0%	61.9%	67.5%	—	82.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	91.7%	62.4%	57.9%	60.9%	96.3%	80.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	98.1%	53.3%	54.9%	56.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	63%	71.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.4007
IFS HRES	56%	71.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3181
AIFS Single	49%	72.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2401
National Blend	41%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1697
NWS forecast	41%	73.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
WeatherNext 2	39%	73.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1537
IFS Ensemble	17%	75.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0296

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 72°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261018-TMAX-LE72
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 72°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗