KSAT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

57%

55%

51%

50%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.0¢Risks 28.00u

HRESNO 44.0¢Risks 22.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +22.00u · HRES −22.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:33+00:00	60.3%	88.2%	29.5%	54.8%	63.7%
2026-10-15T16:20:11+00:00	60.3%	88.2%	29.5%	54.8%	63.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	60.3%	88.2%	39.4%	54.8%	63.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	60.3%	88.2%	39.4%	54.8%	63.7%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	60.3%	88.2%	39.4%	54.8%	63.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	60.3%	88.2%	39.4%	54.8%	63.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	59.5%	88.2%	39.4%	57.1%	69.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	59.5%	88.2%	39.4%	57.1%	69.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	59.5%	88.2%	39.4%	57.1%	69.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	59.5%	88.2%	39.4%	57.1%	69.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	59.5%	88.2%	45.7%	57.1%	69.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	59.5%	88.2%	45.7%	57.1%	69.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	59.5%	88.2%	45.7%	57.1%	69.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	60.3%	88.2%	45.7%	57.1%	69.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	60.3%	88.2%	45.7%	57.1%	69.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	60.3%	88.2%	45.7%	57.1%	69.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	60.3%	88.2%	45.7%	57.1%	69.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:42+00:00	65.4%	78.8%	29.7%	59.7%	64.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	65.4%	78.8%	29.7%	59.7%	64.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	65.4%	78.8%	29.7%	59.7%	64.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	65.4%	78.8%	38.3%	59.7%	64.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	65.4%	78.8%	38.3%	59.7%	64.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	65.4%	78.8%	38.3%	59.7%	64.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	69.6%	78.8%	38.3%	59.7%	69.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	69.6%	78.8%	38.3%	59.7%	69.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	69.6%	78.8%	38.3%	59.7%	69.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	69.6%	78.8%	38.3%	59.7%	69.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	69.6%	78.8%	38.3%	47.3%	69.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	69.6%	78.8%	54.7%	47.3%	69.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	69.6%	78.8%	54.7%	47.3%	69.3%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	69.6%	78.8%	54.7%	47.3%	69.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	68.0%	78.8%	54.7%	47.3%	69.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	68.0%	78.8%	54.7%	47.3%	69.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	68.0%	78.8%	54.7%	47.3%	69.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	68.0%	78.8%	54.7%	47.3%	69.3%
2026-10-17T04:42:16+00:00	68.0%	78.8%	54.7%	47.3%	69.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	68.0%	78.8%	51.2%	47.3%	69.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	68.0%	78.8%	51.2%	47.3%	69.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	68.0%	78.8%	51.2%	47.3%	69.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:55+00:00	66.2%	78.8%	51.2%	55.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	66.2%	78.8%	51.2%	55.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	66.2%	78.8%	51.2%	55.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	66.2%	78.8%	51.2%	55.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	66.2%	78.8%	51.2%	55.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	66.2%	83.7%	46.1%	55.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	66.2%	83.7%	46.1%	55.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	66.2%	83.7%	46.1%	55.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	52.0%	83.7%	46.1%	55.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	52.0%	83.3%	46.1%	55.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T15:25:08+00:00	52.0%	72.3%	46.1%	55.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	52.0%	72.3%	46.1%	55.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	52.0%	72.3%	41.1%	55.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	52.0%	72.3%	41.1%	55.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	52.0%	72.3%	41.1%	55.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	52.0%	72.3%	41.1%	55.8%	60.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	34.7%	72.3%	41.1%	38.5%	25.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	34.7%	72.3%	41.1%	38.5%	25.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	34.7%	72.3%	41.1%	38.5%	25.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	34.7%	72.3%	41.1%	38.5%	25.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	34.7%	72.3%	31.4%	38.5%	25.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	34.7%	72.3%	31.4%	38.5%	25.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	34.7%	72.3%	31.4%	38.5%	25.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	34.7%	72.3%	31.4%	38.5%	25.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	47.1%	72.3%	31.4%	38.5%	25.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	47.1%	72.3%	31.4%	38.5%	25.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	47.1%	72.3%	31.4%	38.5%	25.8%
2026-10-18T04:14:29+00:00	47.1%	72.3%	31.4%	38.5%	25.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	47.1%	72.3%	56.4%	38.5%	25.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	47.1%	72.3%	56.4%	38.5%	25.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	47.1%	72.3%	56.4%	38.5%	25.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	47.1%	72.3%	56.4%	38.5%	25.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:41+00:00	51.0%	72.3%	56.4%	64.7%	17.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	51.0%	72.3%	56.4%	64.7%	17.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	51.0%	72.3%	56.4%	64.7%	17.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	51.0%	72.3%	56.4%	64.7%	17.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	51.0%	68.4%	51.4%	64.7%	17.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	51.0%	68.4%	51.4%	64.7%	17.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00	51.0%	68.4%	51.4%	64.7%	17.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	51.0%	68.4%	51.4%	64.7%	17.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	57.1%	68.0%	51.4%	64.7%	17.6%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	57.1%	68.0%	51.4%	64.7%	17.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	57.1%	55.1%	51.4%	64.7%	17.6%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	57.1%	55.1%	51.4%	64.7%	17.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	57.1%	55.1%	51.4%	64.7%	17.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	57.1%	55.1%	51.4%	64.7%	17.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	57.1%	55.1%	51.4%	64.7%	17.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	57.1%	55.1%	51.4%	50.0%	51.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	57.1%	55.1%	51.4%	50.0%	51.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	57.1%	55.1%	51.4%	50.0%	51.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	57.1%	55.1%	51.4%	50.0%	51.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	57.1%	55.1%	51.4%	50.0%	51.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	57.1%	55.1%	56.8%	50.0%	51.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	57.1%	55.1%	56.8%	50.0%	51.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	57.1%	55.1%	56.8%	50.0%	51.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	62.0%	55.1%	56.8%	50.0%	51.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	62.0%	55.1%	56.8%	50.0%	51.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	62.0%	55.1%	56.8%	50.0%	51.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	62.0%	55.1%	56.8%	50.0%	51.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	62%	77.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	77.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	55%	76.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	51%	76.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	76.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	76.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗