KSAT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

57%

55%

51%

50%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.0¢Risks 28.00u

HRESNO 44.0¢Risks 22.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +22.00u · HRES −22.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	77.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	74.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	76.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	—	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	43.5%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.3%	1.2%	85.7%	—	—	84.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	98.6%	87.4%	5.2%	—	74.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	92.4%	55.8%	83.0%	—	79.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	95.8%	82.6%	58.3%	—	74.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	60.3%	50.0%	35.9%	—	52.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	44.2%	67.8%	23.2%	—	40.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	24.6%	57.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	50.0%	70.1%	29.1%	—	44.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	54.5%	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	57.3%	79.7%	25.9%	—	41.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	49.0%	80.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	57.7%	68.7%	30.4%	—	33.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	55.0%	58.9%	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	63.1%	65.1%	37.8%	—	39.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	46.8%	46.8%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	62.9%	23.0%	51.1%	0.0%	36.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	53.4%	40.0%	0.0%	—	30.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	28.0%	52.3%	51.2%	5.1%	23.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	48.8%	2.7%	45.2%	—	23.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	26.6%	17.4%	56.2%	—	34.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	53.9%	20.9%	42.3%	—	34.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	68.1%	55.4%	63.2%	14.1%	26.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	78.9%	45.8%	67.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	76.6%	61.4%	60.1%	34.5%	41.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	77.6%	77.6%	61.9%	—	38.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	78.6%	36.1%	63.9%	48.4%	29.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	85.9%	81.9%	75.9%	—	53.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	62%	77.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.1444
WeatherNext 2	57%	77.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.1866
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	0.1901
IFS Ensemble	55%	76.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.2016
ICON	51%	76.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.2391
IFS HRES	50%	76.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.2500
National Blend	44%	76.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	0.3136

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗