KSAT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

52%

42%

40%

39%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.5¢Risks 23.73u

HRESNO 52.5¢Risks 26.27u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +26.27u · HRES −26.27u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:52+00:00	51.7%	79.2%	35.3%	49.2%	62.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	51.7%	79.2%	30.5%	49.2%	62.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	51.7%	79.2%	30.5%	49.2%	62.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	51.7%	79.2%	30.5%	49.2%	62.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	52.8%	79.2%	30.5%	49.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00	52.8%	79.2%	30.5%	49.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	52.8%	79.2%	30.5%	49.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	52.8%	79.2%	30.5%	49.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	52.8%	79.2%	30.5%	49.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	52.8%	69.2%	20.3%	49.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	52.8%	69.2%	20.3%	49.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	52.8%	69.2%	20.3%	49.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:50+00:00	56.5%	69.2%	20.3%	50.9%	55.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00	56.5%	69.1%	20.3%	50.9%	55.0%
2026-10-19T04:31:19+00:00	52.0%	42.4%	43.2%	39.4%	40.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	52.0%	42.4%	55.5%	39.4%	40.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	52.0%	42.4%	55.5%	39.4%	40.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	52.0%	42.4%	55.5%	39.4%	40.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.1681
National Blend	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.1945
WeatherNext 2	56%	77.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.1980
AIFS Single	52%	77.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.2304
IFS Ensemble	42%	76.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.3318
ICON	40%	76.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.3600
IFS HRES	39%	76.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.3672

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗