KSAT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

52%

42%

40%

39%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 47.5¢Risks 23.73u

HRESNO 52.5¢Risks 26.27u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +26.27u · HRES −26.27u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	73.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	37.2%	—	—	62.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	0.7%	81.5%	—	—	80.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	48.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	97.8%	83.4%	3.6%	—	68.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	69.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	89.4%	48.5%	78.0%	—	74.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	93.7%	77.2%	50.8%	—	68.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	52.4%	42.1%	28.8%	—	44.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	36.1%	59.9%	17.3%	—	32.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	18.4%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	41.3%	62.1%	22.1%	—	36.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.5%	45.5%	77.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	48.2%	72.6%	19.0%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.0%	39.7%	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	48.0%	59.6%	22.5%	—	25.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	45.0%	49.0%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	53.1%	55.1%	28.5%	—	30.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.5%	36.5%	36.5%	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	52.2%	15.5%	40.3%	0.0%	26.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	42.2%	29.6%	0.0%	—	21.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	19.1%	40.8%	39.6%	2.7%	15.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	37.0%	1.3%	33.6%	—	15.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	17.4%	10.6%	43.8%	—	23.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	41.0%	12.8%	30.2%	—	23.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	55.4%	42.0%	50.0%	7.9%	16.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	67.5%	32.5%	54.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	64.2%	47.1%	45.7%	22.2%	28.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	64.8%	64.8%	47.0%	—	24.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	65.4%	22.6%	48.4%	33.1%	17.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	74.6%	69.0%	61.4%	—	37.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.1681
National Blend	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.1945
WeatherNext 2	56%	77.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.1980
AIFS Single	52%	77.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.2304
IFS Ensemble	42%	76.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.3318
ICON	40%	76.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.3600
IFS HRES	39%	76.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.3672

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗