KSAT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

61%

57%

50%

43%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 54.2¢Risks 54.20u

ICONNO 45.8¢Risks 45.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.80u · ICON −45.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	57.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	63.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	57.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	48.1%	—	—	65.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	46.8%	—	—	53.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	3.8%	17.6%	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	78.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	88.1%	72.0%	1.1%	—	59.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	47.1%	65.7%	29.7%	—	46.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	55.3%	22.8%	41.7%	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	46.8%	31.6%	31.6%	—	45.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	55.8%	30.8%	33.8%	—	49.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	17.8%	65.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	52.6%	35.4%	40.5%	—	37.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	57.1%	45.5%	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	60.9%	52.8%	31.4%	—	46.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	54.7%	57.5%	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	58.7%	53.9%	44.2%	—	44.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	58.0%	44.0%	—	—	41.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	49.0%	27.6%	31.2%	0.0%	34.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	62.5%	41.6%	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	56.5%	41.3%	42.4%	—	45.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	56.7%	51.1%	0.0%	—	41.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	55.8%	46.5%	45.4%	0.0%	37.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	63.0%	42.8%	50.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	62.3%	43.8%	38.9%	33.1%	45.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	66.3%	53.9%	36.1%	—	33.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	64.4%	58.0%	39.4%	24.0%	30.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	68.8%	51.4%	44.4%	—	37.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	72.0%	54.3%	45.7%	38.6%	40.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	54.5%	47.0%	—	27.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	83.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	82.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	82.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	82.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	81.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	43%	80.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261020-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗